When the Green Bay Packers failed to bring in a big-name receiver following the Davante Adams trade, a lot of attention began to gather around their backfield duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon — one that epitomizes a “thunder and lightning” combo — because Aaron Rodgers, Matt LaFleur, and the Pack weren’t just going to be bad, right? …right?
Obviously, they have been. While there’s a lot of blame to go around, Dillon has been one among many on the roster who has struggled to produce at expected levels.
You may remember seeing him go as early as the fourth round in your fantasy drafts. Owners expected a lot of goal-line carries for the 247 lb. behemoth and a hefty share of work in the passing game. Rodgers even suggested Jones and Dillon could be in line for at least 50 catches each heading into the season.
Unfortunately, Dillon has been one of the fantasy season’s biggest busts. True, the Packers really haven’t spent much time inside the five-yard line, but Jones’ explosiveness and production have tilted the balance in his favor as the season progressed. Dillon had one touchdown to his name when heading into Green Bay’s primetime Week 12 matchup in Philadelphia. That came in Week 1 and averaged a hair under four yards per carry. In a game that saw both the Packers trailing and a hobbled Rodgers trying to lead them back, Dillon showed what he can be — and what he was expected to be — turning 11 touches into 88 yards and a score.
His re-emergence of sorts continued with a dominant 21-touch, 119-yard, one-touchdown performance in a must-win rivalry game at Soldier Field. The former second-round pick out of Boston College stepped into a more pivotal role than he’s been used to after Jones left the game with a shin injury. It’s a spot Dillon may be in line to reclaim if he continues to flash some of the upside that the Packers were expecting from him. His six yards per carry in the past two games is obviously based on a smaller sample size, but it’s a big leap from his season average. If he and his famous quads can create consistent second-and-4 opportunities, it will go a long way toward helping an offense that has struggled mightily with three-and-outs.
Dillon has become a fan favorite in a relatively short amount of time, even acquiring the honorary title of Mayor of Door County. It’s an exaggeration to say he’s been bad overall this year. Injuries and reshuffling on the offensive line have made the gaps between the tackles far less friendly than in years past, a circumstance that has favored the more dynamic Jones.
The Packers have dug themselves quite the hole in the NFC standings, dropping games to the New York Giants, New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Washington Commies, and Tennessee Titans, any one of which would have placed them in a significantly more advantageous position. But despite the anemic offense and pathetic defense, winning their last four games would position Green Bay to potentially earn a playoff spot, provided they get the help they need with Seattle, Washington, and New York. As the second half of December looms, it’s the perfect time to let the quads loose on tired and banged-up defenses.
The biggest hurdle in the unlikely playoff push is winning out. The good news is that three of the final four games are in Green Bay, including two divisional showdowns. The elements, which will probably include wind and snow and most certainly some brutal cold, will only fuel Dillon, the perfect harsh-weather back. Expect him to see more than 20 carries in games when the Packers are controlling the clock, and expect these carries to become increasingly impactful as the game progresses, à la Derrick Henry.
The biggest obstacle to winning out remains the Week 16 showdown in Miami, in which Joe Barry will probably ruin Christmas for one of the largest and most passionate fanbases in sports. But that game can be won. Regardless of the outcome of this season, seeing Dillon string together some dominant games is promising for the future of Matt LaFleur’s offense. Romeo Doubs is set to rejoin Christian Watson in the starting lineup for the first time since Watson’s seismic breakout. Therefore, the continued development of the passing game will make it easier to get Dillon running downhill, creating a path nobody wants to be on the other side of — especially this time of year.
