It’s only Week 12, but after a disastrous early-season stretch, we find ourselves struggling to chart a path for the Green Bay Packers to a playoff bid. It’s quite a fall for a perennial top seed in the Matt LaFleur era. Following a thrilling comeback victory against one of their eternal punching bags, the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay appeared to be seizing season-altering momentum finally. However, after the same underperforming defense and anemic offense revealed themselves again last Thursday in a brutal home loss at the hands of the Tennessee Titans, the Packers are faced with a steep uphill climb if they want to keep playing football in January.
After a scalding start, the Minnesota Vikings basically have the NFC North on lock. Therefore, everyone else’s attention is solely on the crowded wild-card race. The Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the current division leaders, and it’s hard to see that changing, given who they’ve got around them.
Looking at the current state of things, the story unfolding is the contrast between preseason expectations and the reality that is unfolding thus far. Teams expected to be major contenders – Green Bay, the Los Angeles Rams, and, to a lesser extent, Arizona Cardinals – have taken a backseat to surprising Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants squads. Tampa Bay also belongs in that conversation, but their comically bad division is likely to keep them in position to make a run. It’s also worth noting that a similar phenomenon has played out in the AFC, with the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, and Indianapolis Colts putting together awful campaigns and the Titans and New England Patriots sliding in and capitalizing.
The bottom line is that if you’re the Packers sitting at 4-7, you’ve probably got to run the table like it’s 2016. The challenging part is that even if they resolve some of their issues, Philadelphia, Miami, and Minnesota loom as three of their final six contests. That’s why they needed to take care of games like the Giants, New York Jets, Washington Commanders, and Detroit Lions that they blew early on.
Not only do they need to find a new gear and execute with no margin for error, the other consequence of a skid early on is that their fate is not entirely in their hands. They are faced with passing up the Commies, the Atlanta Falcons, and Detroit, who are out of the playoff picture. While that’s embarrassing, it’s hard to take that part of this too seriously. However, it wouldn’t hurt to wind up behind them if the Packers can’t turn things around. As it stands, the teams that are easiest to see them passing up are Seattle and the Giants. They have the same records as San Francisco and Dallas, respectively, but can more easily be counted on for a collapse as their schedules tighten down the stretch.
A ten-game sample size certainly suggests those teams could continue to play above the level their individual talent would suggest. Still, some regression seems more plausible than a collapse from the Niners, who just added Christian McCaffrey, or a Cowboys team that has dominated both sides of the ball and is only getting stronger as players return from injury.
On Green Bay’s side, pulling out a win in Philadelphia and following it up by taking care of business in Chicago would allow them to come out of the bye and make a blitzkrieg run at the seventh seed. The significance of their upcoming primetime contest in Philly underscores how drastically their recent losses in winnable games have tanked their chances.
As for the adjustments they need to make, Joe Barry, who indeed still has a job, has to find a way to maximize the defensive personnel he’s got. And Matt LaFleur has to take full advantage of top weapons Aaron Jones and recent breakout Christian Watson. They’re not in a good spot. They’re really not. But they’ve got a solid roster, have flashed potential, and could capitalize if certain teams turn out to be “fake good.” And let’s not forget, when you’ve got Aaron Rodgers under center, it’s hard to rule a lot out for certain, despite everything we’ve seen so far. So, let’s lock in, stay passionate despite all of the incompetence we’ve witnessed, and hope we can get to a point where the Christmas game in Miami has some meaning to it, cause why the hell not!
