Last week was the ultimate rollercoaster: I could have gone 0-3 or 3-0. I ended up 2-1, but for a while there in the fourth quarter of the early games, it looked like the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars were toast against the spread, and they both won outright on last-minute miracles. The New Orleans Saints’ inability to get into the end zone multiple times from inside the ten erased my dreams of a perfect weekend.
Just one losing week through 12 weeks, and I love this week’s litter of dogs:
Titans +4 ½ at Eagles
This is a little too much love for the NFC’s top seed, who has looked very mortal the past three weeks. They may get back rookie run-stuffer Jordan Davis, who’s missed the last four weeks from an ankle injury. It’s hard to believe he’ll be 100% ready for a 60-minute dose of Derrick Henry. The Titans are coming off a home loss to the Cincinnati Bengals; a game they should have won, and Mike Vrabel and his team are coming in ornery. He’s 21-7 ATS when he’s an underdog of three or more and is 8-3 straight up in that spot since last year. I could easily see them winning outright.
Texans +8 vs. Browns
I promised myself weeks ago I would never look at the Houston Texans the rest of this season, as they are clearly in tanking mode. But the league’s only one-win team has the draft’s No. 1 pick with a little cushion, and they’ve had this one circled on their calendars since the schedule came out. Here comes Deshaun Watson, and let’s be real: A QB who hasn’t played in 700 days shouldn’t be favored by seven against anyone. Sure, the game script figures to include a lot of Nick Chubb running the ball, but the Texans will be uber-motivated to compete hard for four quarters. Nothing would give them more pleasure than to beat Watson and the Browns — and as owner’s of Cleveland’s top pick, a win over them helps them next April as well. I’d sprinkle a few bucks on the money line here — 8 points is a gift.
Rams +7 vs. Seahawks
There is no universe where the Seahawks Seahawks deserve to be touchdown favorites on the road. Yes, I know the Los Angeles Rams are toast, with a minor league offensive line, no Cooper Kupp, a backup quarterback and for the first time in forever, no Aaron Donald. But Seattle comes in having lost a bit of its luster, after being one of the big surprises over the first half of the season. They’ve lost two straight and rarely beat the Rams — losers of three straight and five of six. I understand this is a far different Rams team, but it’s a home division game and John Wolford is back at QB, after missing last week. LA has no interest in tanking, since the Detroit Lions own their pick. The proud, battered defending champs keep this one within one score.
Last week: 2-1
Season: 21-12-3
