As Mason Crosby trotted out for a 26-yard chip shot late in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s 26-20 win over the Miami Dolphins, not many Green Bay Packers fans were thrilled with the decision to settle for a field goal and rely on the defense to secure the win. Crosby’s four field goals on the day were twice as many as he’d even attempted in a game this season. However, if the Packers are going to hang with the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions to close out the regular season, the red-zone offense will need to be much better than it was in South Beach.
Green Bay let out a collective sigh of relief when Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa mercifully tossed a pass directly into defensive back Rasul Douglas‘ breadbasket, marking the third-straight possession where Green Bay was able to snuff out the Miami offense with an interception. With the benefit of hindsight, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur admitted that the decision to opt for the late field goal, at least in part, was due to the way the defense was playing.
“There was some discussion about if we could get into, you know, I think was a fourth-and-three at the end right there. We’re trying to get to like fourth-and-two or fourth-and-one and then go for it,” LaFleur said in his postgame press conference. “But we just made the decision, and I’m glad we made that decision because it ended up working out, and it doesn’t always. But, you know, just I kind of thought the way our defense was playing in the second half that we would keep them out of the end zone at least.”
The postgame quote could also be read that LaFleur didn’t have the utmost faith in the offense to pick up three yards in a situation to clinch the game, which in and of itself is concerning. While Green Bay was effective on fourth down, going 3 for 5 on Sunday, the Packers were particularly atrocious on third down, converting just two of 14 chances.
The best teams in the NFL rank just shy of a 50% conversion rate on third down, and the top six teams are no surprise this season. The Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, and San Francisco 49ers are the best in the stat category. They have conversion rates that rank between 44.7% and 49.2% on third downs. The six teams above just might also be the best six teams in the league, and the stat feels much more like causation than correlation. The good teams can convert on third downs. And when you get into the red zone, those conversions mean seven points instead of three.
Green Bay’s dismal 2 of 14 performance on Sunday helped push their conversion rate down to 19th in the league, just outside the bottom third of the NFL. Taking that statistic a step further, the Packers rank 24th in the league in red-zone touchdown percentage at just over 51%. Detroit (third, 68%) and Minnesota (seventh, 64%) rank in the top 10 of that stat, meaning that the Lions and Vikings find a way to punch it in when it matters most.
So, what’s the fix? For starters, get into third and manageable. On Green Bay’s first three field goals, the third downs directly before the kick attempt were third-and-18, third-and-10, and third-and-10. Three pass attempts by Aaron Rodgers picked up a grand total of two yards on those three plays, leaving a whole heck of a lot of room for improvement moving forward.
When the Packers were successful on important conversions on Sunday, it didn’t necessarily feature the usual suspects on offense. Defenses have certainly keyed in on AJ Dillon‘s bruising ability and the less-than-exciting play calls that accompany his runs up the middle to try to convert, so LaFleur dove a bit deeper into the playbook on some of the biggest plays against Miami. Rodgers found Marcedes Lewis on two huge plays, including a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass in the first quarter. On the opening drive of the second half on fourth-and-short, Rodgers surprised everyone with a Tom Brady-like sneak from the Packers’ own 29-yard line. A few plays later, Rodgers found third-string running back Patrick Taylor leaking out to the left side to convert on third-and-nine.
One of the biggest reasons the Packers need touchdowns rather than settling for field goals is an issue that has reared its head a few times, and it certainly could get ugly again. Mason Crosby has been better this season, converting 20 of 23 field goal attempts, but the horror that was his performance in 2021 still lingers in the collective memory of Packers fans. These final two regular season games will be in the cold at Lambeau Field, where kicking conditions certainly aren’t as ideal as, say, indoors at Minnesota or Detroit. Crosby’s career is littered with clutch kicks, but relying on a 38-year-old kicker with noticeably diminished leg strength in potentially swirling winds in Green Bay isn’t an ideal recipe for success either.
As the field shortens, the room to operate shrinks significantly, leaving Rodgers with less time and space to operate. As the season has worn on, Green Bay’s health has also waned, with Aaron Jones and Christian Watson missing time against Miami due to various ailments. The potential excuses are there, but the fact of the matter remains: Converting on third down and, more importantly, in the red zone, is often what separates the contenders from the pretenders. If the Packers still cling to the hope that they are in the former category, they need to find a way to be better.
