When Aaron Rodgers signed his long-awaited contract extension earlier this month, he became the highest-paid player in the NFL on a per-year basis. In a salary-capped league, devoting that amount of resources means less to go around to other positions, which is why the Green Bay Packers have had to make some very difficult decisions this offseason. With those losses, and with such a big slice of the pie heading to the back-to-back MVP quarterback, the Packers will need several players to outperform their current contracts this season if Green Bay has visions of becoming a Super Bowl contender.
One of the most oft-repeated lines among NFL talking heads is that the best window teams have to win the Super Bowl is with a quarterback on a rookie contract. While the data doesn’t totally support that notion, the concept behind it is simple. The less money you devote to one position, the more money you have to devote to others. Extensions to players like David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, and Preston Smith have been largely deserved, but they have further cut into the available resources to round out the roster.
In 2021, the Packers had several players turn into significant contributors at an affordable price. De’Vondre Campbell ($1.2 million cap hit) and Rasul Douglas ($661,000 cap hit) were late additions to the roster but had seasons that turned themselves into defensive cornerstones — and they got the contract extensions to prove it.
There are two players, in particular, that stand out as potential candidates to outperform their current 2022 contracts. Green Bay will absolutely need them to to help absorb the losses of Davante Adams, Billy Turner, Za’Darius Smith, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and more.
Royce Newman
The Packers will have David Bakhtiari back and healthy to anchor the left side of the offensive line, but they still have a few question marks in the position group. Turner was a cap casualty, significantly cutting into Green Bay’s depth. Although the team expects Elgton Jenkins to return during the 2022 season, the Packers saw with Bakhtiari that an early return date after an ACL injury is by no means guaranteed. Jon Runyan Jr. is seemingly a lock for the left guard position, and Josh Myers should be back and healthy at center. Yosh Nijman proved himself to be an important asset and is the leading candidate to man the right tackle position.
A fourth-round pick out of Ole Miss a season ago, Newman had a brilliant preseason, but he had plenty of struggles throughout the regular season. The talent is there, as have been the flashes of potential, but he had plenty of ups and downs in his rookie year.
Green Bay has two horses in the backfield in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. They will need to rely on their legs more than ever this season. The offensive line has the ability to be a strength, but only if there aren’t any glaring holes along the five-man unit. Attrition is a real thing, as the Packers know very well, and Newman turning right guard into an asset will be huge for the offense. His rookie deal is still highly affordable ($949,000 cap hit), but he’ll need to play like he’s earning veteran money for the offense to hit its potential.
Josiah Deguara
As run-heavy as Green Bay might end up being, they’re still going to want to throw the ball a few times, especially with that highly paid quarterback under center. Josiah Deguara hasn’t quite had the opportunity to showcase his abilities. An ACL injury halted his rookie campaign, and he found himself behind Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis on the positional depth chart. With Tonyan recovering from an ACL tear of his own and Lewis entering his early 50s (kidding, he’ll only be 38, but still), Deguara has a real opportunity to carve a significant role within the offense.
Deguara can far exceed his contract value with a breakout season. He has a cap hit of $1,217,367, ranking 65th in the league at the tight end position. He certainly won’t provide the same production as Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Mark Andrews (all between $14 and $15 million). Deguara’s career stat line is 26 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns, but there’s the potential of him doubling those career numbers in the 2022 season. If Deguara could go for 50 catches, 500 yards, and five touchdowns, that would be a massive win for Green Bay. The opportunity is there for him, and Deguara needs to take advantage.
