Scrolling Twitter in the immediate aftermath of the Green Bay Packers’ 15-9 loss to the Detroit Lions on Sunday included an onslaught of statements from fans everywhere that losing a fifth-straight game was now rock bottom for the organization. Taking a look at the upcoming schedule, injuries, the disaster of the future salary cap, and the dilemma that is Aaron Rodgers, it’s certainly safe to say that there is much more depth below this hypothetical “rock bottom” that the Packers can still explore.
Zooming out on the 2022 schedule, the month of October was supposed to be the easy one: facing the New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders before finishing with a tough road game against the Buffalo Bills. After needing overtime to squeak by Bailey Zappe and New England, we all know what happened next. Green Bay watched its record plummet from 3-1 down to a dismal 3-6.
With what should have been a winnable game in Detroit now behind them, the Packers have to run through a gauntlet of the Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, and Philadelphia Eagles, all of whom are on track for the playoffs.
December presents a road test against an improving Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears, who will be seeking to take advantage of their struggling neighbors to the north. Home against the Los Angeles Rams seems plausibly winnable, but heading to Miami before finishing with the Minnesota Vikings and Lions isn’t a forgiving way to end the season. If a 9-8 record ends up being the final wild card cutoff, does Green Bay have a way to win six more games in their final eight? Are there even three more wins? The nature of playing a first-place schedule certainly isn’t doing the Packers any favors this season.
As Sunday’s game in Detroit wore on, the injuries piled up at an almost impossible rate. In addition to the already-missing players like Randall Cobb and De’Vondre Campbell, Romeo Doubs injured his ankle early and didn’t return. Christian Watson was back in action but got rocked on his lone catch to thin out the receiving corps even further. An injury to Aaron Jones left the backfield a bit one-dimensional with A.J. Dillon. The defense saw Eric Stokes go out early, and Rashan Gary head to the locker room a bit later. It’s since been confirmed that Gary tore his ACL and will likely miss the remainder of the season. It’s too soon to say whether the others on this grim list will miss multiple weeks, but the fact of the matter is that injury luck has not been on the Packers’ side.
If the 2022 season continues as is, Green Bay will be looking at drafting quite a bit higher than they’re used to, which will be a good thing because the Packers will be desperate for affordable impact players. The salary cap maneuvering that the Packers have done over the last few seasons has pushed the truly painful decisions down the road, but that road is coming to a dead end rather quickly.
Russ Ball, Brian Gutekunst and the Green Bay front office will have no choice but to bid adieu to some talented veterans such as Preston Smith and Adrian Amos. The last few years have been unkind to David Bakhtiari, making his future that much more uncertain. Aaron Jones can do a lot for an offense, but he can’t do it all himself, and the money he’s making for a running back may become untenable in the not-so-distant future.
And then there’s Aaron Rodgers.
The most difficult thing that Gutekunst, Ball, and everyone working at 1265 Lombardi Ave. will have to figure out is what the next few years of Rodgers’ career will look like. He’s the back-to-back MVP, but as he closes in on his 39th birthday, it’s evident that something is different this year. Whether it’s a decline in skill, decision-making, supporting cast, or whatever else you’d like to attribute to the calamity that this season has become, it’s hard to imagine him reverting to his glory days, no matter how recent they were.
The calls for Jordan Love seem to be getting louder and louder. Not necessarily because people believe he’s better than Rodgers, but because he’s a fun sportscar sitting in the garage, slowly collecting dust. If the current car keeps veering into the guardrail and teetering on the verge of a cliff, there’s naturally an inclination to see what Love can do.
The contract extension Rogers signed in the offseason is peculiar and, by all accounts, non-traditional in the way it is structured. Whereas most contracts get more team-friendly as the years tick by, this one does not appear to be that way. It’s easy to see the rationale laid out here by Andrew Brandt, former Packers executive/great follow on Twitter. This is really a one-year deal for Rodgers, with some options afterward.
Everything is still conceivably on the table with Rodgers. He could retire. He could demand a trade. Rodgers could also dig in his heels and collect the fortune owed to him by Green Bay, whether or not Love eclipses him.
As painful and, frankly, as embarrassing as the past five weeks have been, I regret to inform you that things can, and most assuredly will, get worse. If you’re into statistics, you’re familiar with the concept of a regression to the mean. Nearly 30 years of sustained success over the eras of two Hall of Fame quarterbacks is an anomaly in NFL history. Unfortunately, that seems to be unsustainable for much longer. There might be the right combination of draft picks, cap wizardry, and a leap in production from Jordan Love that continues this run. But the freefall back to Earth doesn’t seem to be over anytime soon.
