Okay, I was long overdue for a losing week and last week was brutal, but if the Jags make just one of the two field goals they missed, they would’ve covered against the Chiefs, and my week wouldn’t have looked so bad.
We move on to Week 11, and I love this week’s litter of dogs. I had to whittle them down to my three favorites. Here they are:
Colts +7 vs Eagles
Yes, the Philadelphia Eagles are ornery after putting up a dud on Monday night and may play looser, now that all of that undefeated talk has ended. But they’re on a short week and are now without tight end Dallas Goedert for at least a few weeks. Plus, after the Washington Commanders torched them on the ground, look for Jonathan Taylor to be able to do the same. Massive DT Jordan Davis is still out, and though the Eagles added Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh to fill in, neither should be ready to handle a significant workload just yet. The Jeff Saturday magic holds for another week; Indy keeps it close.
Steelers +3½ vs. Bengals
I don’t love betting against a team coming off its bye, but Zac Taylor is just 1-2 in this spot and the Pittsburgh Steelers look like a different team with T.J. Watt and back on the field. It’s no coincidence that in his return last week, the Steelers had six sacks. In that crazy Week 1 overtime win in Cincinnati, they sacked Joe Burrow seven times. They will make Joe Cool uncomfortable again and he still doesn’t have Ja’Marr Chase back, who was huge in the first game. Give me Mike Tomlin as a home dog all day long. He’s 14-2-1 in that spot and has won the last seven outright. This line was 5.5 a few days ago. There’s still value despite the two-point drop.
Chargers +5 vs. Chiefs
I’m going with the more desperate team here, one that knows that the AFC West is toast if they can’t win this one. I don’t know if they can spring the upset, but they should stay within shouting distance. They showed some grit in their game at the Niners last week and for some reason play better as underdogs than as favorites. Justin Herbert is 3-1 ATS against the Chiefs and every game has been within six points — plus he’s 5-0 as a home dog of five or more. I’d feel even better if I knew that either Keenan Allen or Mike Williams was playing (they’re trending in the right direction), but the Chiefs are just as thin at wide receiver right now. Finally, KC is 0-5-1 in their last six ATS after a win. All the trends favor LA at home, even though Chiefs fans will probably outnumber Chargers fans. This line feels a couple points too high to me.
Last Week: 0-3
Season: 17-10-3
