Trying to explain why the much-hyped Green Bay Packers are struggling so mightily is fast becoming a cottage industry. One particular factor affects nearly every phase of the game, though. Second- and especially third-year players are usually major contributors and go a long way in deciding decide the success or failure of an NFL team. The Packers are currently paying the price for their strange draft in 2020 and for the lack of development of their sophomores.
The Packers drafted nine players in 2020, and the only starter is sixth-round pick offensive guard Jon Runyan. In 2021, there were nine more selections and only two current starters: cornerback Eric Stokes and center Josh Myers. There are three, if you count Amari Rodgers, a returner.
That means the team made 18 selections to get three starters. Worse yet, none of them has been a game-changer, even though Stokes had a promising rookie season. Fortunately, the two offensive linemen have been assets.
The 2020 class: A talent issue
- QB Jordan Love
- RB AJ Dillon
- TE Josiah Deguara
- LB Kamal Martin (released before the 2021 season, now a free agent)
- G Jon Runyan
- C Jake Hanson (IR)
- T Simon Stepaniak (retired before the 2021 season)
- S Vernon Scott (IR after being waived/injured)
- EDGE Jonathan Garvin
Green Bay’s 2020 draft class never made much sense. It was immediately classified by reliable analysts, like PFF and Mel Kiper, as the worst in the league. The points of criticism were talent level, questionable plan, and lack of care for positional value.
In the first round, the Packers traded up to get quarterback Jordan Love while Aaron Rodgers still had four years left on his old deal. Then the team got running back A.J. Dillon, tight end/H-back Josiah Deguara, and off-ball linebacker Kamal Martin with their next three picks — all players from positions with low value.
Runyan is the only starter of the group, and he is a guard. Love has had only one start, and there’s no indication he is the quarterback of the future. Dillon is the backup to Aaron Jones, and there is an evident decline in efficiency when he runs. Deguara has been relatively good, but he’s just the fourth tight end in number of snaps.
Martin and Simon Stepaniak aren’t on an NFL roster. Vernon Scott was waived/injured, and no team has claimed him, so he reverted to Green Bay’s injury reserve. Jake Hanson, who’s now injured, is a swing interior backup lineman, and Jonathan Garvin is a rotational edge piece with low efficiency.
The 2021 Class: A development/usage issue
- CB Eric Stokes
- C Josh Myers
- WR Amari Rodgers
- G Royce Newman
- DL TJ Slaton
- CB Shemar Jean-Charles
- T Cole Van Lanen (traded to the Jaguars before the 2022 season)
- LB Isaiah McDuffie
- RB Kylin Hill (PUP list)
The 2021 class looked more promising last season. Eric Stokes played well as a de facto CB1 after Jaire Alexander got injured. Josh Myers was a starting center from Day 1, even though he lost half of the season to a knee injury. Royce Newman was also a starting right guard for most of his rookie year, and seventh-rounder Kylin Hill was RB3 and the kickoff returner.
However, things went sideways this season. In this case, it looks more like a lack of development or a plan to use them correctly than a talent issue, as it is with the previous class.
Stokes has had the chance to be a CB2 this year, but he is one of the weakest links of the Packers’ secondary. Much of his struggle is related to his usage. Stokes is better suited to play aggressive man coverage, so he’s had difficulty adjusting to a passive zone-heavy scheme. Myers has been solid, but he hasn’t made a big step up in his second year, either.
Amari Rodgers has less than 10% of offensive snaps and five career lost (and six total) fumbles. Royce Newman was benched because of poor performance, both at right tackle and at right guard. T.J. Slaton is a decent rotational defensive lineman, with 30% of defensive snaps — and he probably should play more. Shemar Jean-Charles and Isaiah McDuffie are special teamers only. Kylin Hill hasn’t returned from a knee injury suffered last season, and they traded Cole Van Lanen to the Jacksonville Jaguars in August.
The Packers have been underwhelming this season, and a lot of that is because young players haven’t developed as expected or simply aren’t good enough compared to their draft slots. It’s a problem difficult to solve during the season and one the Packers will have to overcome to salvage 2022 with 10 games left.