Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 01/10

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Detroit Pistons/Philadelphia 76ers Over 227.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBCS-PH

The key here is closely monitoring whether Joel Embiid plays or not. Without him in the lineup for the past three games, Philadelphia’s defense has looked lost. The Sixers have allowed 121 points per game and 1.175 points per possession during those absences, showing just how critical a piece Embiid is for the NBA’s fourth-rated defense. But fortunately, their offense hasn’t missed a beat behind excellent guard play, thus carrying all three games over this total.

And we know Detroit is not going to guard anyone. The league’s second-worst defense in terms of points allowed, efficiency, and opponent floor percentage continues to get torched on a nightly basis. But Philly’s season series with Detroit is a microcosm of the Embiid situation, as the game he played went well under while the one he missed flew over. Keep a close eye on his questionable designation, as the Sixers are a far different team and prone to overs without him in the lineup.

 

NBA (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Cavaliers -3 @ Utah Jazz (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on SportsNet RM

The struggles for the Jazz appear likely to continue here, especially with Donovan Mitchell returning to Salt Lake City for the first time. Utah is starting to look more like the team we expected this season, going 3-9 straight up and 5-7 ATS their past 12 games. With a minus-4.1 average ATS margin in that stretch as well, it shows the Jazz are still overvalued by odds makers and the market. That makes a short number like this a good value with a team on the opposite trajectory as Utah.

The Cavaliers have managed their rest well on this tough road trip, and I’m sure this game means a lot to them and their star guard. They obviously took the Jazz seriously three weeks ago in handing out a 23-point beating, and while I wouldn’t expect a similar result on the road, it does show the gap between these teams. Add in the motivation for Mitchell and the direction these teams are headed, and I see a comfortable Cavs win in this one.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Donovan Mitchell Over 28.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

You’re definitely paying a premium with Mitchell here given the situational spot, but I have to believe that motivation will carry him over this number. It’s set right in line with his season average of 28.8 PPG, although he hasn’t been clearing this total all that much in recent weeks. But the Jazz are a pretty poor defense and allow the NBA’s fifth-most points in home games. That should create a more up-tempo game and give Spida plenty of opportunity to make a statement on his former floor.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Texas Tech @ Iowa St. -3 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+

The Cyclones have been picking up steam ever since getting whipped at Iowa, and I expect them to turn in another strong performance here. I’m particularly liking the first half though because I’m not yet convinced that this team can win by margin, and needing them to cover multiple possessions is a lot in what should be a grind of a game. Iowa State has been excellent in the first half at Hilton Coliseum, though, owning a plus-12 average margin good for 23rd in the country.

While Texas Tech has been an excellent first half team in their own right, I expect them to come into this game shorthanded. Daniel Batcho and Pop Isaacs are both looking like they’ll continue to sit tonight, and their absences were felt on both ends of the floor on Saturday. This elite Clones defense, rated 9th in the country, should lock Tech down without having to worry about those key pieces. A brutal start to conference play for the Red Raiders is likely to continue here, and I like ISU to jump on them early.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 1010-869 ATS (+81.3 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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