Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals/Buffalo Bills 1st Quarter Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on CBS
These are two top-5 offenses by DVOA, running their best scripted plays against banged-up defenses. Before the Damar Hamlin situation in the first meeting, you saw both teams go right down the field and put up points on their first drive, and I expect that again.
The Bills are 1st and the Bengals 3rd for first-quarter scoring in the league, resulting in a combined 23-11 record over this total on the season. In addition, Bills home games are 7-2 over this number in first quarters. Light snow is in the forecast but there’s minimal wind, so I don’t see weather dampening a hot start from both offenses.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Gabe Davis Anytime Touchdown (+160; Odds via DraftKings)
Playoff Gabe has definitely become a thing after the Buffalo wide receiver broke out last season. After a big game last week against some talented corners for Miami, Davis should be in line to continue his hot streak. Cincinnati’s corners are extremely banged up, and like most teams will be most concerned with Stefon Diggs. That should open the door for Davis to find success all game and get in the end zone as well.
NFL (0.75 Unit) Dallas Cowboys/San Francisco 49ers 1st Half Over 22.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FOX
I’m continuing to ride this bet as the first half of 49ers games have flown over this total the past 3 weeks, averaging 32.7 points. And don’t forget that they’ve faced two backup QB’s in that span. This is the highest total yet, but now they have to contend with a Dallas offense that’s top-5 from a points per game and per play basis.
And with injury woes in the Cowboys secondary, the multitude of weapons for the 49ers should be able to find plenty of success. Let’s hope the Brett Maher kicking debacle doesn’t ruin this somehow, but these offenses should be able to take advantage of defenses that have proven to be exploitable early.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Christian McCaffrey Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
The biggest fear as a Dallas fan today is that multitude of weapons that San Francisco can unleash. McCaffrey has certainly been arguably the most featured of them since being traded to the 49ers, averaging 40.1 receiving yards per game. With the Cowboys ranking 21st in DVOA metrics against running backs in the passing game, it’s an exploitable matchup that I’m sure Kyle Shanahan has game-planned around, so take the over on this prop.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1037-882 ATS (+88.7 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
