NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Missouri/Ole Miss 1st Half Under 67.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on SEC Network
Missouri might be a fast-paced and offensive-minded team in general, and especially at home, but they just don’t play that way on the road. They average 13 fewer points per game, 5.5 fewer possessions, and .095 points per possession less on the road compared to home games. Those differences present themselves early in the game, with their SEC road games averaging 61.7 points in the first half.
Now they’ll face an Ole Miss team that should further those trends, as the Rebels are one of the slower-paced teams in the country at 232nd in tempo. They’re also fairly limited offensively with poor shooting and offensive rating numbers, but Mississippi will definitely guard you, ranking 65th in defensive efficiency. It’s those factors that have caused their home first halves in league play to average 63.3 points despite facing some strong opponents. With smart money betting the under in this game, I’ll focus on a slow start from both teams and not worry about any late fouls pushing the full game over.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Kansas St/Iowa St Over 134.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPNU
There’s no question that Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the country, but it’s going to be challenged tonight. Kansas State probably has the highest ceiling offensively in the Big12, and it’s already been on display against some excellent defensive teams. The Wildcats actually have better offensive numbers on the road as well, and have cashed the over in 4 of 5 away from home including all 3 conference road games.
But don’t discount the Iowa State offense here, which has quietly started to be a strong complement to the defense. The Cyclones really score well at Hilton Coliseum, averaging 1.103 points per possession which has helped their Big12 home games average 139.3 points. I think they’ll find success against a K-St defense that’s been absolutely torched in conference road games. The market seemed to agree as it pushed this total up a couple points, but I still think there’s value in the over for this game.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Fresno St @ Boise St -12 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on FS1
Boise State has been one of the best-kept secrets so far this college basketball season, and they’ve been really dominant at home. The metrics love this team, ranking them top-25 in most models despite the Broncos not getting much attention from AP voters. A pair of two-point road losses to other MWC contenders is all that’s preventing the Broncos from being undefeated in conference, and they should beat up on this outmatched Fresno State team.
Boise has outperformed expectations all season at home, going 7-3 ATS overall and posting a plus-7.7 average ATS margin in their conference home games. Fresno State hasn’t kept it within single digits on the road in any conference game, and have only faced one of the upper-tier teams so far. A team that’s 349th in scoring will have a terrible time against Boise’s 15th-rated defense, allowing the Broncos to pull away with ease. They should be looking to put it on the Bulldogs in this national TV spot, so I trust the models that say this will be an easy cover.
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1040-886 ATS (+88.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.