Locks
NFL (1 Unit) San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on FOX
It’s been a fun and wild ride for Brock Purdy, but that ends today. Rookie quarterbacks are 0-4 in conference championship game history, with ugly stat lines to boot, and this just seems like too big of a task for Purdy and his 49ers team. Having to travel cross-country to such an incredibly hostile environment is something far different from the relatively easy NFL introduction Purdy has had so far. Let’s remember that he’s only played two road games, against terrible pass defenses in Las Vegas and Seattle.
Philadelphia boasts the NFL’s top pass defense by DVOA, and it should expose the rookie’s limitations. We’ve seen Purdy get away with plenty of would-be interceptions already, as well as truly looking like a rookie last week, so the best defense he’s faced yet should make him pay. I also trust the Eagles offense to take advantage of where the 49ers are weakest defensively, which is in the secondary. That offense looked elite again with a healthy Jalen Hurts last week, and given that he’s 7-0 ATS as a single digit home favorite, I’ll back Philly to get this done.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Eagles 1st Half -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
The Eagles have been a fantastic first-half bet all season, especially at home. They’re the NFL’s highest-scoring first half team, with the best average margin and a plus-149 point differential. That’s why they’re 8-1 against the first half spread at home when Jalen Hurts starts. San Francisco has struggled to get early separation for 5 straight weeks now against far worse competition, relying more on their second-half strength. That should be a problem early today against the best first-half team, and result in a halftime lead for the Eagles.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): AJ Brown Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I mentioned the 49ers having issues in the secondary, and those problems create a good opportunity for Brown to excel today. San Francisco specifically struggles with throws beyond 15 yards, as we saw multiple times last week with Dallas receivers running free downfield. Brown has an average target depth of 12.0 yards this season, the perfect type of receiver to take advantage. He’s also asking to be more involved, so I expect Hurts to find him plenty in this game and get over a number that’s actually below his season average.
NFL (0.25 Unit) Cincinnati Bengals @ KC Chiefs -1 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on CBS
I don’t have a huge appetite for picking a side in this game, but I’ll simply say that the Bengals love I’m seeing out there is concerning. Far too many analysts and talking heads are on Cincinnati today, and while they could certainly be right, there isn’t a good track record of universal love for one side of a coin flip game.
If the Chiefs have a solid offensive game plan to minimize the Patrick Mahomes injury, and he’s able to follow it, then Kansas City is more dangerous than they’re getting credit for. The Bengals as a team also seem just a little too cocky and distracted this week, so I’ll take a shot that the young GOAT Mahomes has enough in store to pull what almost seems like an upset at this point.
Bonus Bets (0.5 Unit Each) Joe Burrow Over 37.5 Pass Attempts and Over 25.5 Completions (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
I have a far bigger appetite for backing Burrow today to continue what he’s been doing in the second half of the season. For the Bengals to have success here, they’ll have to attack a Chiefs defense that’s worse against the pass than the run. There aren’t many teams throwing it more than the Bengals down the stretch of this season, as they’ve relied on Burrow’s arm on 67% of snaps since week five.
We saw it last week when Burrow threw 36 times in the snow while his team led comfortably the whole game. This should be a situation where throwing it will be an even bigger part of the game script, so I like Joe Cool to find his way over both passing props.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers @ Memphis Grizzlies -3 1st Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
I’m continuing to target the opening quarters of Pacers games, especially when they’re up against a strong first quarter team. That’s what we have in Memphis, as the Grizzlies are 8th in first-quarter scoring overall, 4th at home, and 10th in first-quarter points allowed. That’s moved them to 5th overall in average first quarter margin, and 4th in home games where they love to show out for the crowd.
The Grizzlies will definitely have that chance here against an Indiana team that can’t get any worse to start games. The Pacers are dead last in first-quarter scoring both overall and on the road, and are second-worst in points allowed. That has unsurprisingly made them the worst first quarter team for average margin at minus-4.9 points. The Grizzlies desperately need a bounce back after 5 straight road losses, and I think they come out on fire early in this one.
NBA (0.75 Unit) New Orleans Pelicans @ Milwaukee Bucks -3 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBATV
The return of Khris Middleton for the Bucks has done wonders for their offense, and I expect that to continue here. This Milwaukee team loves to push the pace early and jump out to big leads regardless of the health of their star players. They should find a willing partner in that style here, as the Pelicans also tend to get out to fast starts. But New Orleans finds itself on a back-to-back with travel here after looking awful last night in a home loss to the Wizards.
That might have an impact on Brandon Ingram’s status as he works his way back from injury, and line movement suggests that he might be sitting tonight. Regardless, this Bucks team looks like they’re making up for lost time in averaging 40 first-quarter points since Middleton returned. I think they race to another strong start at home against a tired and possibly depleted Pelicans squad.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1049-898 ATS (+85.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
