Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+130; Odds via Caesars)
Virginia -225 @ Syracuse: 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
This really boils down to Virginia’s ability to get it done when they’re supposed to, and Syracuse’s inability to pull off upsets. The Cavaliers are 13-2 straight up this season when favored, which is a strong record in a college basketball season that’s been full of big upsets already. But when Syracuse is an underdog they’re just 2-6 straight up, with the wins being fairly unimpressive.
Those wins, as with all 6 in ACC play for The Orange, have come against the teams at the bottom of the conference standings. They have struggled against the top ACC teams, including a loss to this Virginia team 3 weeks ago. With the Cavs finally having a strong outside shooting team to shoot over the top of the Syracuse zone, I see them having enough offense to grab their 7th straight win overall and 5th straight in this matchup.
Baylor @ Texas -175: 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
I think this has the potential to be a great game, but I also think Baylor comes in a little overvalued. The Bears appear to be rounding into form behind great guard play, but their 6-game winning streak has not come against the toughest of schedules. When Baylor has lost this season, it’s come against teams with strong offenses that can score in transition. Texas fits that description perfectly, and I think it makes the difference tonight.
The Longhorns look to run in transition at the 4th-highest rate in the country, and that’s a tough matchup for Baylor as they’re just 180th in defensive efficiency in transition. The Bears will look to equalize that with the 3-ball, but those shots just haven’t been dropping for them on the road this season. Texas has the athletic defenders that can switch easily against Baylor’s pick-and-roll offense to further limit those shot attempts. Texas is in need of a bounce back after losing at Tennessee, and a return home where they’re 12-1 should be what they need to get back on track.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Iowa State -1.5 @ Texas Tech (-110): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
Part of me wonders why I do this to myself, going right back to my Cyclones at a short number on the road after they looked awful at Missouri on Saturday. But every time this team has taken a loss this season that looks like it exposed them, they’ve come right back with a statement win. That’s a credit to coach TJ Otzelberger and the toughness of this team, which I think shows up again tonight.
I also think they’re a bad matchup for Texas Tech, especially with the Red Raiders dealing with injuries to Pop Isaacs and Fardaws Aimaq. An offense that feasted on terrible teams in the non-conference slate has proven it’s just not good enough against Big12 defenses, and Iowa State has one of the best they’ve seen. The shooting disparity isn’t likely to repeat from the 34-point beating the Clones handed out 3 weeks ago. But ISU knows how to defend this Tech team, is in need of a bounce back, and should get it against the conference bottom-feeder.
Degenerates
NBA Sacramento Kings/Minnesota Timberwolves Under 237.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
As always, how to play the total in a Wolves game is highly dependent on whether Rudy Gobert suits up. And as always, his status is uncertain for tonight because the NBA is the way that it is. However, Gobert looked fairly healthy on Saturday night and this is not a back-to-back or travel spot, so I’ll operate on the assumption that the questionable status means he’ll play.
That has me looking to the under on a fairly high number here, and one that only adjusted down by half a point from Saturday’s first meeting that got to 227 points. The biggest key to hitting the under might be Gobert’s presence on defense and how he slows down the Wolves offense.
But another important factor is Sacramento’s poor shooting, as one of the league’s best shooting teams really struggles on the road. That’s especially true from deep where they’re 27th in away games, so if those shots aren’t dropping, this total should be out of reach.
Tiny Nick is 1055-900 ATS (+88.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
