Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/01

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Golden State Warriors -3 @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Part of me hopes I’m wrong here, and I hate going against the Wolves after their recent strong stretch. But ultimately this just seems like a bad matchup for how Minnesota is constructed, and it’s why the Warriors crushed the Wolves in their only other meeting this season. Golden State just seems like they have too much ability to play position-less basketball to take advantage of Rudy Gobert being a statue.

And if the Warriors are on target from deep, they’ll fill it up at Target Center tonight. Minnesota is the 3rd-most generous team in allowing three-point shooting in home games, and the Warriors have been on fire in their past few games. The run of strong defense out of the Wolves will get its toughest test here, and sadly I don’t think they’re up to the challenge so I’ll lay it with the visitors tonight.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Warriors/Timberwolves 1st Quarter Over 61 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Golden State blew the doors off the Wolves right away in the first meeting and never looked back, hanging 47 in the first quarter. If the matchup concerns bear out, then we should be in for a high-scoring first quarter again. The Warriors are the highest-scoring first quarter team in the league, with the Wolves right behind at fifth. But Golden State also allows 31.2 first quarter points in road games, 4th-most in the league. With the Wolves typically allowing big first quarters at home, this should be another fast start for both offenses.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Tennessee/Florida Under 132 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

Tennessee is a lot of fun to watch if you’re a fan of defense, but if you want offense then this probably isn’t the game for you. The Volunteers lead the country in points allowed, defensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency, opponent shooting percentage, and the list goes on and on. That defense travels well too, experiencing very little drop-off in road games, and will meet another defensive-oriented team here.

Florida is heavily reliant on their 25th-rated defense, as the Gators have struggled with shooting all season. They’ve played 8 games against teams that I’d consider strong defensive squads, averaging 55.8 points per game. Tennessee will obviously be the best defense they’ve seen yet, and I expect further offensive struggles. But with their own excellent defense and the Vols tending to go into scoring droughts on the road, defense should be the theme here and create an easy under.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1060-902 ATS (+91.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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Locks NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics/Atlanta Hawks First Half Over 116 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on NBA TV First halves of Celtics games are […]

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