Locks
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Portland/San Diego Over 160.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on WCC Network
Perhaps the most amazing thing about the college basketball slate tonight is that this is not the highest total on the board, or even in the WCC. Given that these are by far the two worst defenses in the conference, it would not have surprised me to see odds makers hang this total in the mid-160s or higher. I guess they haven’t learned that if San Diego is playing any of the five other WCC schools willing to participate in their style, this total is basically the floor for scoring.
The Toreros have continuously proven it, with their games against those other squads averaging 170.8 points and going 4-0 over this total. That includes the first meeting with Portland which saw 171 points behind the exact style of game you’d expect. A high number of possessions and efficient offenses, going up against the 269th and 340th defenses in adjusted efficiency, is a recipe for points, and books haven’t adjusted high enough here.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Santa Clara/Gonzaga 1st Half Over 75.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on CBSSN
I’ve watched enough Gonzaga games to know that if it looks like a good over bet, going with the first half is a smarter play. That’s especially true in home games for the Bulldogs, where the potential for a blowout means bench players and a slower pace down the stretch.
Gonzaga is no stranger to erupting for plenty of early points, ranking 2nd in the country with an average of 43.9 first-half points at home. They should also be looking to atone for their last home game, an absolute clunker of a loss, so that extra motivation will lead to an even more up-tempo style. That should make this game more like their first two WCC home games that saw 96 and 89 first half points.
Santa Clara likely won’t mind, as they have no problem getting into shootouts with the other fast-paced WCC teams. The Broncos have a pretty efficient offense of their own, and actually score more in road first halves at 36.5 points on average. With both teams bottom-third nationally for first-half points allowed, this should be a very high-scoring start.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1062-903 ATS (+91.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
