Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
The spread in tonight’s game feels fair, and I’m not going to lay multiple possessions against a Magic team that’s been feisty. But what’s unfair, at least in the minds of all Wolves fans, is the news yesterday that Anthony Edwards did not make the All-Star Game. The question will be how much that motivates him tonight, but I think it’s worth betting that he does take it personally.
My Wolves bias and some recency bias has me seeing the case that Minnesota fans are making with Edwards, as he averaged 27.3 PPG for the month of January, and 31.8 the past two weeks. There have been some tough defensive squads included in that schedule, but we know Orlando isn’t one of them at 21st in defensive rating. And Edwards went wild against them in the other meeting this season, hanging 35 points on 60% shooting. With some extra motivation to fuel him, I think Ant goes off again tonight in front of those upset fans.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Suns @ Boston Celtics -3.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on NBATV
I’m not falling for Phoenix’s recent strong showings, as this team is still a fade candidate against strong competition until Devin Booker returns. Their 6-2 straight up and ATS run the past two weeks has been against a softer schedule, and includes only a single road game at awful San Antonio. This is a far different spot for them to deal with, traveling cross-country to take on arguably the best team in the league.
The road is where things have been difficult for the Suns, with just 3 wins in the past 11 away games. And it’s been slow starts dooming them, as Phoenix owns a minus-1.3 average margin in first quarters on the road this season. They’ll face one of the toughest opening-quarter teams in the league here, as Boston is 3rd in first-quarter scoring and 2nd in average margin. The Celtics have destroyed weaker opponents early in games this season, particularly at home, and in a national TV spot I think they do it again.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Eastern Michigan +11 @ Ball St (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on CBSSN
Eastern Michigan has been both a punchline and punching bag throughout this season, creating some inflated spreads for the Eagles lately. But things are turning around for them as this team actually has an incredible amount of talent. Key pieces Legend Geeter and Kevin-David Rice are finally looking healthy, adding some defensive help and complementary scoring to stars Emoni Bates and Noah Farrakhan. It’s led to 3 straight covers against a couple of the tougher MAC teams.
I think they keep it going here against a Ball State squad that’s decently strong, but not necessarily laying-double-digits strong. The Cardinals are just 4-5 ATS at home this season, and their lone double-digit home win in MAC play came against the actual worst team in the conference. With EMU’s stretch of awful results still fresh in everyone’s mind, now is a great time to back them at an inflated number while they’re playing above their power rating.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Mount St Mary’s +16 @ Iona (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN3
Iona should be running away with the MAAC conference this season given their talent and coaching edges, but poor play that started around Christmas has them slumping a bit. That hasn’t stopped them from laying enormous numbers like this one though, and it’s just too much against a Mount St Mary’s team that has hung with everyone in the league so far.
The Mountaineers might have 8 conference losses but only one was by double digits, on the road at league-leading Siena. They’ve underperformed expectations themselves, but not at a level that warrants this kind of a spread against an opponent on an 0-6 ATS run. The Mount will look to slow this game to a crawl, excellent conditions to be holding so many points in your pocket. With Iona’s recent offensive struggles, I’m just not seeing them being able to pull away and win by margin, so I’ll take the points here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Nevada Team Total Over 72.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on CBSSN
When Nevada plays at home I’m generally looking to bet the over, but there needs to be a competent offense on the other side. That’s not something I trust will come from Air Force, as the Falcons have had a lot of struggles with scoring on the road. Their scoring drops by 0.134 points per possession in road games, but their defense also gets considerably worse.
The drop in defensive efficiency from the Falcons is why they allow 5.0 more points per game on the road. Nevada’s offense meanwhile gets a massive boost in Reno of 0.150 points per possession and 9.1 points per game, so they should be well-suited to take advantage. The Wolfpack is 8-2 over this number at home this season, including 5-0 in MWC play where they average 78.4 in regulation. This is a sneaky team with a strong offense, and they should show it off at home again tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1062-905 ATS (+90.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
