Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics -3.5 First Quarter (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
Maybe all the role players Brooklyn acquired at the deadline aren’t a good fit, or maybe the front office decided on tanking. Could be both, but whatever the case may be this team has been atrocious since the All-Star break, and I doubt Boston will feel sorry for them tonight. In their past 5 games the Nets have the 3rd-worst defensive rating and the 2nd-worst Net Rating, so it’s a bad time to face the elite Celtics offense.
I think it gets ugly early as Boston loves to step on teams in the opening quarter, ranked 2nd in average first-quarter margin compared to a Nets team that’s 24th in road games. And the road has been terribly unkind to Brooklyn lately, with their past 4 away games seeing them trail by 6, 15, 8, and 18 points after the first quarter. The last time they visited TD Garden it was a 30-point lead for the Celtics after 12 minutes, and while it probably won’t get that bad, I do think it gets bad enough to back Boston early here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Phoenix Suns -4.5 @ Chicago Bulls (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBCS-Chicago
By making this bet I’m announcing, in fairly square fashion, that I’m bought in on the Kevin Durant hype. Everyone and their third cousin seemed to be backing the Suns on Wednesday in Durant’s debut, and they managed to cover the double-digit spread by playing exactly as anticipated. With tonight’s spread now below the key number of 5 points, I’m backing Phoenix again.
But Chicago really doesn’t scare me here as the Bulls are mired in quite the slump. With only 7 wins and 6 covers in their past 17 games, none of which came against impressive teams, Chicago appears to be quickly falling out of relevance. And with the human cheat code that is Durant, I’m seeing Phoenix extend those woes. The Slim Reaper historically carves up Chicago and this Suns squad is playing with a ton of confidence, so they should cover this relatively short number.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets -2.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
These teams are actually tied for the 2nd-best mark in average first half margin this season, but home court is going to make all the difference here. Both teams have built those stats up on their strength in home first halves, where Denver takes over the top spot in the league.
That’s thanks to the Nuggets averaging 62.4 points in home first halves, whereas Memphis only puts up 55.0 on the road, ranking 25th in the league. Look no further than the season series so far, with one game in Denver where the Nuggets led by 15 at half, and the other in Memphis where the Grizzlies had a 24-point halftime advantage. With that game just last Saturday, I’d expect the Nuggets to be out for revenge against a Grizzlies squad on the wrong side of the headlines.
Memphis hasn’t been good on the road in general this year, just 10-19-1 ATS, and Denver has been the best home team in the league. I think that adds up to a solid halftime advantage for a Nuggets team that’s led at half by 18.5 points on average their past 4 in Denver.
NCAA Basketball (0.25 Unit) Toledo/Ball St Over 158.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Just a small play on this since it’s such a big number, but these are two teams well-suited and very familiar with getting to this level of scoring. This should be a fast-paced game with extremely efficient offense, plus plenty of three’s going down. Toledo’s offense is basically unstoppable in the MAC right now, but don’t sleep on Ball State who is highly efficient at home. They also already put 90 on Toledo in a big upset to start conference play this season.
And with both teams prolific from deep as Toledo is 2nd and Ball State 23rd in three-point percentage, there will be plenty of points from outside. Neither can guard the three either, as the Rockets are 281st and the Cardinals 338th in three-point percentage defense. Red-hot shooting is why the first meeting saw 173 points, and why the past 5 meetings have averaged 168.2 points. This is a game where you’d be crazy to bet the under with the sheer potential for points, so I’ll take a shot with the over so I can respect myself.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Murray St vs Drake -11 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
The best thing about conference tournament time is the extra data points you have when looking at a matchup. In this case, I’m looking at a Drake team that I’m a big fan of and not really worried about them covering such a big number. That’s because this matchup has been unfair this season as the Bulldogs won by 18 and 24 points, and both meetings being so lopsided makes it less of an outlier.
The excellent shooting for Drake carved up a bad Murray State defense – ranked 277th in adjusted efficiency by KenPom – in both meetings. And the Bulldogs managed those runaway victories despite losing the turnover battle both times. That makes me pretty confident that there’s nothing fluky going on between these teams, Drake is just far superior. The Bulldogs have been stewing since Sunday when they lost the regular season title to Bradley, and I think they look to take it out on a team they know they can dominate.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) New Mexico/Colorado St Over 156 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on FS1
The market seems to be recognizing this as one of the efficiency-based overs that have been the dominant trend in college basketball the past couple months. That’s gotten sharp money to drive this total up a couple points, but I still agree that over is the right play here. It’s not often you get two teams facing off who can shoot as well as these squads do. They’re both top-20 in shooting percentage, with Colorado State shooting a ridiculous 50.3% in home games.
That’s helped the Rams to an 11-4-1 over record in home games, and another should be coming here. New Mexico is a freakishly good shooting team on the road, shooting the 10th-highest percentage, and will carve up a Rams defense that’s 322nd in efficiency in home games. If the Lobos can dictate their usual up-tempo style, then I see plenty of points from these excellent shooting teams.
Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): New Mexico -2 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
New Mexico’s bubble status for the big dance is about as precarious as it gets. While a win here doesn’t put them in the tournament, I think a loss definitely puts them out save an automatic berth from the MWC tournament. Desperate teams on the road this time of year can easily throw up on themselves, but the Lobos are so good with Jaelen House back in the lineup I just have to back them here on a short price.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1124-962 ATS (+81.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
