Locks
NBA (0.25 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 22.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN
The ankle injury in Chicago marred a very consistent stretch for Edwards in the month of March, and he’s only just getting back up to speed. The Timberwolves will need him at that usual level tonight though, as the return of Kevin Durant makes the Phoenix offense extremely potent. Even though the Wolves have tightened things up on defense lately, they’ll need to score with the Suns in this one. That should mean Ant gets over a total that’s discounted due to his injury, but one that he’s cleared in 2 of the 3 meetings with Phoenix this year.
Bonus Bets (Degenerates Only): Timberwolves +5.5 and Moneyline +175 (Odds via Caesars)
Why not, right? Four straight for this team including road wins in New York, Golden State, and Sacramento have the Wolves rolling. The fully-staffed Suns are definitely going to be a problem in the Western Conference, but will they get going right off the bat? It may take a little time to get everyone on the same page as KD and Deandre Ayton return to health. That feels like an opportunity for this hot and undervalued Wolves team to pounce for another road win, or at least keep it close.
NBA (1 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Indiana Pacers 1st Quarter Over 58.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI
I really can’t believe this total is not in the low 60’s or more considering how these teams play each other. There are a few injury concerns for both squads, including Tyrese Haliburton being out and Khris Middleton listed as questionable. But Haliburton has not played in any of the games against Milwaukee this season, Middleton missed one, and even Giannis missed one. No matter, as all three meetings have erupted in the first quarter for 70, 75, and 70 points.
That’s incredible scoring and incredible consistency, which I think continues tonight. It’s not surprising given that the Bucks are 3rd in first-quarter scoring, and the Pacers allow the most first-quarter points in home games. And with Milwaukee headed into a home game with the Celtics tomorrow I’m expecting them to want to get this one done with quickly. This number doesn’t make sense for a game with a total of 238.5 that’s been on the rise, and even though odds makers don’t make mistakes, I’d say this is as close as it gets.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Luke Kennard Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+125; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SE
I couldn’t believe there was a plus-juice return on this prop, so I have to jump on it. I love a good revenge angle, and that’s a big element of the handicap here with Kennard facing his former team. He already saw the Clippers once since being traded, and lit them up from deep with a 5-for-5 night beyond the arc.
The return of Ja Morant and his ball dominance hasn’t impacted Kennard either, who has gone over this number in all 3 of Morant’s games and 7 of the past 8 overall. In that 8 game stretch, Kennard is also shooting a ridiculous 62.5% from long range. A player that’s on fire and has extra motivation sounds like a great bet to me at plus money.
NBA (0.25 Unit) Sacramento Kings -14 @ Portland Trail Blazers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA
This number was already wildly high to open, then the announcement was made that Damian Lillard is being shut down for the rest of the season and it moved to here. I’m still laying it because I just don’t see how the Portland backups compete here. It’s not only Lillard, but Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Jusuf Nurkic as well that won’t play as well. That leaves the cupboard about as bare as it can get, and puts the Blazers in a familiar spot.
As was the case last year, this Portland team is content with getting blown out down the stretch. They lost their last 11 games last season by a 22.2 point average margin and are on a similar trajectory now. They’ve had some of their starters the past 10 games, but they’re still 1-9 straight up, 3-7 ATS, and are missing the cover by 7.2 points on average. Now that they’re starting a ragtag group of reserves, Sacramento should blow them out as the Kings clinch a playoff spot tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1178-1020 ATS (+76.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
