Locks
MLB (0.25 Unit) Minnesota Twins/KC Royals First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
I have a theory that the new rule banning the shift is going to have a negative impact on Zack Greinke eventually, as left-handed batters can now swing away. Until that’s proven true though, I have to rely on his ridiculous splits from last season that say he’s going to fare pretty well at home today. Last year Greinke was a completely different pitcher at home, posting a dominant 1.91 ERA and 0.86 WHIP across 12 starts. That included two home starts against the Twins where he only had 2 total earned runs.
The Twins don’t have a ton of left-handed pop to take advantage of that theoretical regression, so I’m not expecting a scoring outburst for them early in this one. But they do have their prized and pricy pitching acquisition of Pablo Lopez getting the start here. He should be able to hold down a KC offense that only has two scary bats, at least the first couple times through the order. This is also a friendly reminder to only bet unders on the first five innings to avoid ghost runner scoring binges in extra innings, and I’m starting off the Twins season with one here.
MLB (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on MLB Network
You have to fade Patrick Corbin every opportunity you get, and it’s a gift that you can do it for opening day. Right at the top of the list for worst starting pitchers in baseball, Corbin will be a target of mine until Washington management has the sunken-cost fallacy explained clearly to them. Not only is the Nats lefty bad in general, he gets rocked by the Braves, allowing a 9.42 ERA and 2.41 WHIP to Atlanta last year.
The Braves enter this season expected to once again produce plenty of power and runs. I expect them to pick up where they left off last season, which was ranking 4th in average and 3rd in OPS against left-handed pitching. They also averaged 6.1 runs per game against the Nationals last year, so they generally put up big numbers against their division opponent. A low full-game total that factors in the anemic Nats offense is holding this isolated total down, but that creates value that I’m going to exploit against Corbin.
MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+100; Odds via Caesars)
Atlanta Braves -255 @ Washington Nationals: 12:00 PM CT on MLB Network
If the Braves are going to exceed their team total, and even if they don’t, Max Fried should be able to shut down a no-name lineup from Washington. Fried pitched in DC twice last season, with Atlanta winning both by a combined score of 16-7, and this year’s Nats are a far worse version. We know what the expectation is for Patrick Corbin on the other side, so trust the Braves to get the win and kick off this parlay.
LA Angels -225 @ Oakland Athletics: 9:07 PM CT on MLB Network
Ironically, I was asked on TV this week which of these teams had a better chance of going over their season win total and I said neither. But today I’m choosing the lesser of two awfuls, because Oakland is in for a truly long and brutal season. The A’s have the thankless task today of starting that season against the hottest player on the planet, as Shohei Ohtani starts his seemingly inevitable MVP campaign. Ohtani pitched twice in Oakland last season, compiling a 0.82 ERA and .143 on-base average allowed. I think he picks up where he left off in the WBC, leading LA to a win and closing this fairly chalky parlay.
NIT Tournament (0.5 Unit) UAB/North Texas Over 127.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN2
This is just too low of a number for a championship game, even with the slowest team in the country on one side. I think the important comparison here is when these conference rivals played in the C-USA tournament semifinals. That game, with a high amount of postseason stakes, saw these teams combine for 145 points in a high-possessions game. That’s unusual for North Texas since they play at a crawl, but they aren’t incompetent offensively.
They were able to score when they needed to against a good Wisconsin defense, in a game that would have flown over this number had the Badgers not gone on a 9-minute scoring drought. I think the Mean Green will need their offense here to keep up, as Jordan Walker is in line for a bounce-back game for UAB after struggling on Tuesday. The Blazers showed in that conference tournament game that they’ve figured out the UNT defense to some extent, so they can continue that here. And with reports of soft rims at Orleans Arena, I’m expecting this one to find its way over a very low number.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1181-1021 ATS (+77.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
