Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/18


NCAA Football (1 Unit) Ohio State First Half Team Total Over 21.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:00 PM CT on BTN

Sorry Gopher fans, this is not going to go well. The Ohio State offense has finally turned the corner, only a matter of time with their weapons and Ryan Day. Unfortunately, their rise coincides with a complete collapse defensively by Minnesota, as the Gophers have given up far too many points to pedestrian offenses from Illinois and Purdue the past couple weeks.

Minnesota also got housed early by the other quality Big Ten team this year when Michigan put up 24 before halftime. And speaking of the Wolverines, they’re who Ohio State has on deck for a de-facto CFP elimination game, so the Buckeyes will want to put this one away early. That’s what they did last week with 35 in the first half and cruise control in the second, so look for OSU to score at will early and often.


NCAA Football (1 Unit) North Carolina/Clemson First Half Over 28.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:30 PM CT on ESPN

Both of these teams are elite scoring offenses early in games, and both have shown a tendency to slow things down late. Clemson especially, as the Tigers are just 105th in scoring after halftime, so I want to take advantage of their aggressiveness in the first half. They should be able to score plenty on this UNC defense that has fallen off a cliff since early-season success, especially seeing the Heels ranked when they feel they’re the better team.

The Tar Heels are allowing 18.3 first half points per game on the road, and Clemson has been on a mission since Dabo Swinney got called out by “Tyler From Spartanburg.” The North Carolina offense keeps rolling too though, ranked 11th in first half scoring, and have scored the second-most first half points in road games. The Clemson defense is not quite what it used to be, so expect early fireworks between two very strong and motivated offenses.


NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) UNLV ML @ Air Force (+130; Odds via DraftKings): 2:30 PM CT on CBSSN

These two teams couldn’t be moving in more of opposite directions, and that makes grabbing this plus-juice price with UNLV attractive. The Rebels are the nation’s most profitable ATS team this season at 9-1, but catching just 2.5 points here offers very little value. I think they spring the mild upset though, as Air Force already looked broken heading into last week in Hawaii.

Then they lost starting quarterback Zac Larrier who appears to be out today as well. For a UNLV defense that’s already good against the run to get that kind of break is huge, and I think they shut the Falcons down in this one. Colorado Springs has been a tough place to play in recent years, but these teams are on polar opposite trajectories that I see continuing today.


NCAA Football (1 Unit) Georgia State/LSU First Half Over 38.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN2

In order to handicap this late-season non-conference matchup, you need to look back specifically at LSU’s other non-conference home games. Those games against Grambling and Army saw the Tigers score 38 and 42 points themselves as they showed no mercy to horribly overmatched opponents. That’s what Georgia State is here, especially with the Panthers ranking near the bottom of FBS in pass defense.

LSU is going to throw all over that Georgia State defense as they try to pad stats for Jayden Daniels in his well-deserved Heisman campaign. But the Tigers also have a tough time stopping anything, and the Panthers are very dangerous offensively so they’ll contribute points here. With LSU also keeping rest and health for Texas A&M next week in mind, look for Brian Kelly and company to run it up early and probably approach this total on their own.



No degenerates today.



Tiny Nick is 1648-1464 ATS (+82.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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