Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/20

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

The Eagles are really good, rested off the bye, and looking for revenge from February. I just don’t think any of that matters tonight given the strength of Kansas City and how they’ve fared in situations like this in the past. Plus, I still think the Chiefs are a mismatch for Philadelphia but in slightly different ways than what fueled their Super Bowl victory.

Kansas City should be able to pick apart this Eagles defense through the air, as Philly ranks 25th against short passes, 28th in the middle of the field, 28th against slot receivers, and 32nd against tight ends. I just don’t see the Eagles being able to slow the Chiefs down enough because of that, especially in crunch time.

I think most importantly here though is the success of Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs off a bye, this time of year, and against spreads of this short a number. Reid is 9-1 straight up off the bye with KC, Mahomes is 30-1 straight up in his past 31 November/December starts, and 15-1 straight up his past 16 night games. And give Mahomes a spread of under a field goal or underdog, and he rewards bettors with a 20-6-1 ATS record. That’s just too strong a track record for Kansas City to not back them at this short number.

Monday Night Football Bonus Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 Completions (-110)

1 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions (+115)

1 Unit – Travis Kelce Anytime TD (-110)

0.5 Unit – Travis Kelce 100+ Receiving Yards (+205)

0.5 Unit – AJ Brown Anytime TD (+125)

0.5 Unit – Jerrick McKinnon Over 2.5 Receptions (+110)

0.5 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

 

NBA (1 Unit) NY Knicks @ Minnesota Timberwolves -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I think this is a heavily discounted line based on a few factors. I just wonder what this number would be if the Wolves hadn’t been in a terrible situational spot at Phoenix last week, taking a fairly predictable blowout loss. That’s the only blemish in their past 9 games, all against either elite or solid competition, yet the market seems to see the same old Timberwolves and hangs a short number.

I also really think New York is overinflated at this point. The Knicks have won 3 straight on this road trip, but all against bad teams. Their current run of 6-1 both straight up and ATS has also been against a very soft schedule. In fact, they only have one win against a team with a winning record this year, beating a depleted Cavs squad. While this should be a slower and more defensive-oriented game, the Wolves are simply the better team and should have no trouble with the Knicks or the spread.

 

NBA (0.75 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Washington Wizards 1st Half Over 121 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

Even though it’s a high total here, I just have to try to pick off this number that I think is undervalued. First off, this being less than half of the full-game total creates natural value, especially with how scoring has gone in the NBA the past few years. Secondly, it doesn’t account for how fast these teams play to start games, with both top-5 in pace.

They’re also terrible defensively in first halves, with the Wizards being the most generous home team in first halves at 63.2 points allowed. The Bucks defense just isn’t there this year, but fast pace, good shooting, and no defense from Washington should be what’s needed to reach this high number.

 

Degenerates

NFL/NBA/NCAAB 3-Team Moneyline Parlay (+300; Odds via Caesars)

Philadelphia Eagles @ KC Chiefs ML (-145): 7:15 PM CT on ABC

NY Knicks @ Minnesota Timberwolves ML (-155): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

Texas versus UConn ML (-225): 6:00 PM CT on ESPNU

It felt like a lot of people took it on the chin this weekend, or maybe it’s just me. Either way, nothing beats a Monday parlay to get back on track, especially one that is as enticing as this. I’ve already laid out why I think the Chiefs and Wolves are good bets above, but for this we’ll just ask them to win straight up.

Then I’m adding UConn to juice up the parlay to a 3:1 payout because I think they’re in great shape here. The number for them is getting a little heavy now, so again I’ll just ask them to win the game. I think they can against a Texas team that is not putting their excellent pieces together very well right now.

The Longhorns just struggled mightily with an awful Louisville team yesterday, which is not the first time I’ve seen them have issues pulling away from poor competition. A veteran and talented UConn team playing more of a home game at MSG is the side I want to be on here, hopefully closing out this nice parlay.

 

Tiny Nick is 1659-1474 ATS (+80.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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