Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 11/26

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)

Pittsburgh Steelers/Cincinnati Bengals Under 43.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

It’s late November with rain and a decent amount of wind projected to impact this outdoor game. Even if it wasn’t a backup QB in Jake Browning and someone who should be a backup QB in Kenny Pickett, this game has everything you want in an under bet. Both defenses are vulnerable against the run, so we should see the ball stay on the ground and the clock stay moving in this game. Games with a total lined at 37 or less this season are 12-1 to the under, so getting this up above several other key total numbers is too good to pass up.

Jacksonville Jaguars/Houston Texans Over 41.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

While I think this game turns into the shootout necessary to clear the full-game total, I’ll instead move the number down below the key 6 touchdown mark. Anyone who was bitten by the over falling short in last week’s Texans game shouldn’t be afraid of this one, as that game should’ve been a shootout until it was plagued by 5 turnovers. This should be a cleaner game, with two very vulnerable defenses, especially against the pass. With a couple of exciting and dynamic young offenses squaring off, I see this going back and forth all game.

Baltimore Ravens/LA Chargers Over 41: 7:20 PM CT on NBC

I’ll close this totals teaser with a bit of a risk, since trying to fight the primetime unders trend has been rough going this year. But at a full touchdown discount I’m feeling a lot better, especially given how truly awful this Charger defense is. LA has been terrible against the pass, ranking 26th in EPA per drop back, 27th in passing success rate, and 32nd in yards allowed. With Joey Bosa out and the Chargers playing mostly zone, Lamar Jackson should shred them. Baltimore has some defensive injuries as well, and haven’t been tested by a good offense in a long time. These teams are a combined 8-2 over this total in their past 5 games, and I think we finally see some points in prime time here.

 

NFL (1 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 First Half @ Las Vegas Raiders (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:25 PM CT on CBS

When you’re scoring the second-most points before halftime and the fewest after halftime, something is definitely wrong, so the Chiefs certainly have issues to clean up. But I’m not worried about the problematic second halves here, I just want Kansas City to get off to one of their patented fast starts. I have no doubt this team is angry after hearing all week about their mistake-filled collapse on Monday night, and they should take it out on the Raiders today.

Patrick Mahomes has owned this team in his career, and it’s still a bad defense that can be sliced up by scripted possessions. Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Matt Nagy have been very effective at executing that early game plan this year, and I’ll count on them to do it again. With Aidan O’Connell coming back to earth and now meeting one of the league’s best defenses, this should be at least a touchdown margin for KC by halftime.

 

NFL (0.5 Unit) Baltimore Ravens -3 @ LA Chargers (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

I wasn’t interested in this game when Baltimore was laying 3.5 since Justin Herbert has an incredible 10-2 ATS record when catching more than a field goal. But now that it’s moved to a flat 3 points I’m jumping in. This Chargers team looks like it’s completely done, especially with coach Brandon Staley who continues to lose games with dumb decisions. The Ravens have one of the best offenses in the league right now, perfect for attacking LA’s style of defense, and should put Baltimore in position to win. With the Chargers so banged up and self-destructive, that should be enough to get the Ravens to win by margin.

 

NFL Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Rachaad White Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Mike Evans Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Mike Evans Anytime TD (+165)

1 Unit – Derrick Henry Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jaylen Warren Over 71.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – George Pickens Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)

1 Unit – Trevor Lawrence Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (-110)

1 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 274.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – CJ Stroud Over 23.5 Completions (-110)

1 Unit – Tank Dell Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receptions (-150)

1 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Jerome Ford Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – David Njoku Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – David Njoku Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)

1 Unit – Davante Adams Over 5.5 Receptions (-110)

1 Unit – Deandre Swift Over 82.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – AJ Brown Anytime TD (+105)

0.5 Unit – Josh Allen Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – Isaiah Likely Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Keaton Mitchell Over 50.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)

 

NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Boston Celtics First Half Over 121 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on NBCS-Boston

The bottom line here is that the second and third-highest scoring teams in first halves are squaring off. Not much stops these teams early in games, including Atlanta’s defense that is 28th in first half points allowed. The Hawks are on a back-to-back with travel here, having played a high-possessions game with Washington last night, so their defense will be even more strained.

Boston should feast, especially with the Celtics upset after choking away a big lead in Orlando on Friday night. But the Celtics aren’t full-strength either with Jrue Holliday iffy for this game, putting their defense in a tough spot against the league’s second-most efficient offense. I think we see offense galore to start this game as Boston pours it on while Atlanta stays hot.

 

NBA (0.75 Unit) Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic -4 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

I’m going to keep backing Orlando early in games as they continue to have the best average first half margin in the league. Especially against a team like Charlotte, who ranks 28th in the same category. The Hornets have also benefited from a very easy schedule so far, only playing 3 road games against teams with winning records, and all 3 turning into lopsided defeats.

It’s strange but actually fair to say that Orlando is the best team they’ve visited all year, and I think the Magic will be ready for this divisional matchup. Their defense has been elite to start the season, and should slow down a Hornets offense that’s below average in efficiency and effective field goal rate. With Orlando having confidence from running the Celtics out on Friday, look for them to establish another solid halftime lead tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

Tiny Nick is 1681-1490 ATS (+81.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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