Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/01

Locks

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) New Mexico State Team Total Over 21.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN

Very quietly, New Mexico State is playing some the best football in the country and are full of confidence. That confidence started building not long after their early-season loss at Liberty, a game they essentially threw away. The Aggies scored on 3 of their first 4 possessions for 17 early points, then turned it over on 4 of their remaining 5 possessions.

Quarterback Diego Pavia has really cleaned up the mistakes that plagued NMSU in that game, and they’ve averaged 26.2 PPG since. Liberty is not here on the strength of their defense, especially against the run where they’ll be vulnerable to Pavia’s dual-threat ability. I think the Aggies are able to avoid their previous mistakes tonight, and are hot enough offensively to clear this team total.

 

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Oregon -6 First Half vs Washington (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 7:00 PM CT on ABC

It feels very much like I’m on the side of literally everyone in thinking Oregon is winning this game, so that’s scary. The full-game spread is probably too big at double digits to lay against a powerful Washington offense that could easily get in the back door.

But I’ve been riding Oregon first halves all season and I’m not stopping now. The Ducks just seem like they’re headed in a different direction than the Huskies, who have had 3 or 4 very close calls down the stretch of their undefeated season. Oregon keeps winning with authority on the strength of strong starts, and that’s what I see again tonight.

With both teams elite offensively and ranked 2nd and 3rd in first half scoring, the differentiator becomes defense. That’s where Oregon has a big advantage as their defense has improved while Washington’s has regressed. The Ducks are 15th in first half points allowed compared to 57th for the Huskies, and Washington should struggle with the speed of Oregon on this indoor turf. Oregon has been laser-focused on this revenge spot, and should jump out early on a wobbly Washington team.

 

NBA (1 Unit) Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic -10.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports FL

This just feels like another smash spot for a Magic team that is riding high right now. The number here certainly reflects their 19-point demolition of Washington on Wednesday, but I think we see another blowout tonight. The Wizards simply aren’t in the business of winning or trying, especially on defense as Orlando’s 139 points the other night showed.

The Magic are just a wagon, owning the league’s best ATS record, best home ATS record, along with the second-best margin of victory and ATS margin in home games. Orlando should once again toy with this collection of unserious and unmotivated Wizards players, handing out another beatdown in the process.

 

NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks -9.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 6:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

As long as the Memphis roster continues to be a MASH unit, you have to go against them when they’re facing talented teams. The Grizzlies just don’t have enough NBA-caliber players available to be competitive against quality opponents, especially on the road where they have a bottom-5 ATS margin. This feels like another double-digit loss for them, especially since Dallas already gave them one in the first meeting this season.

Memphis is even less healthy now than they were in that game, which they lost by 15 even with Kyrie Irving out. The two Mavericks stars are both in tonight, making them extremely dangerous offensively. With Memphis ranking 29th in scoring and dead last in shooting, they just won’t be able to keep pace and should lose by margin here.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) UConn/Kansas Under 148.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2

This is a really fun matchup with Final Four preview written all over it. I think the result is a hard-fought and tightly guarded game that ends up short of a total that’s fairly surprising to me. These are two top-10 teams for adjusted defensive efficiency, and they match up well against the other’s offensive strength. UConn has been dominating teams inside with Donovan Clingan, but the Jayhawks are one of the best interior defenses in the country.

Kansas has also become too reliant offensively on ball screens with DeJuan Harris and Hunter Dickinson due to a lack of perimeter scoring, but that’s the offensive action that the Huskies are excellent at defending. Kansas has gone up against two other elite defensive teams in Tennessee and Marquette, with those games going well under the posted total and this one. I’m expecting another tonight given the matchup and defensive strengths.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 1720-1508 ATS (+91.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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