Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 12/02

Locks

NCAA Football (1 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via DraftKings)

Alabama/Georgia Over 48.5: 3:00 PM CT on CBS

Every year it seems like the SEC title game turns into a track meet. The past 10 years have seen an average of 65.8 points while going 7-3 over this teased total. When you put all the elite athletes in this conference on an indoor fast turf, offense thrives. That’s what I’m seeing again here, especially with these defenses not as fearsome as they’ve been in recent seasons. Georgia in particular should put up a big number with Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey coming back for this game. With Jalen Milroe getting better by the week, Alabama can keep pace and make this into another shootout.

Michigan/Iowa Over 27.5: 7:00 PM CT on FOX

The over in an Iowa game? Well not exactly, as it’s being discounted by 20% on the tease here, and it’s a number that I’m not sure Iowa even needs to contribute anything towards. Michigan should be out to make a statement tonight with Jim Harbaugh back on the sidelines, and that should help get the offense back in full gear. The Wolverines just put up 30 points against an Ohio State defense that’s arguably more talented than Iowa’s, and I think they might clear this total on their own again. Michigan will get short fields thanks to the inept Hawkeyes offense, and cashing those in will help reach this incredibly low number.

Louisville/Florida State Under 53.5: 7:00 PM CT on ABC

You have to feel bad for Florida State here, as even if they somehow win this game the CFP committee likely leaves them out due to the Jordan Travis injury. But now they’ve added even more injury to that insult and injury, with backup QB Tate Rodemaker likely out for this game with a concussion. The Louisville defense will be able to stack the box against the Seminoles, who struggled to run the ball outside of Travis’ mobility this season. And in rainy conditions, I don’t think the Cardinals will trust Jack Plummer and his turnover tendencies against an opportunistic FSU defense. Look for both teams to struggle offensively in a sloppy and ugly conference title game.

 

NCAA Football (0.5 Unit) Boise State versus UNLV ML (+120; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on FOX

I have no idea why Boise State is deserving of being installed as a favorite here. The Broncos are only in this game because of computerized tiebreakers gifting them a spot in the conference championship. They benefitted from a very soft closing schedule and a head-to-head win over the true best team in the conference, San Jose State, in a home game before the Spartans figured it out this year.

UNLV is very deserving of this spot though, playing some of college’s best football and notching the top ATS record in the country. Their excellent run defense will help shut down a Boise offense that’s entirely reliant on Taylen Green being a dual-threat quarterback. I also love the opportunity for speedy Rebels wideout Ricky White to torch a Boise defense that’s 131st in pass yards allowed on the road.

Let’s not forget that this is essentially a home game for the Rebels at Allegiant Stadium, and Boise has only one road win this season. I just don’t buy the Broncos as dangerous against quality competition, so I’ll take the plus price with UNLV to claim the conference crown.

 

NCAA Football (1 Unit) Alabama/Georgia Over 55.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 3:00 PM CT on CBS

The teased version of this total is too good to pass up, but I like the regular full-game total as well. Alabama just struggled to slow down a fairly bland Auburn offense last week, and have really had trouble with multi-faceted offenses like Georgia brings. The Bulldogs meanwhile have been carved up by mobile quarterbacks, and now face the best one they’ve seen all year in Milroe. I also think Georgia tries to leave no doubt about their top ranking heading into the CFP, putting up enough points to make this total very reachable.

 

NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Michigan -11.5 First Half versus Iowa (-120; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on FOX

The statement that Jim Harbaugh and Michigan are likely to make tonight should start early. There are opinions out there that Iowa will make this game gross and therefore close, but I’m not buying it. The Hawkeyes played one quality opponent this season, losing 31-0 on the road at Penn State, a much less talented offensive team than Michigan. The all-around talent and weaponry for Michigan will be a big shock to Iowa’s system tonight, and with the extra motivation for the Wolverines they should take a big lead into halftime.

 

NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks/Milwaukee Bucks Over 251.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports WI

I love overs when this Atlanta team is facing a bad defense, and that’s kind of what you have to consider this Milwaukee team to be right now. The Bucks are bottom-third in the league for defensive efficiency and most opponent shooting metrics. That’s not great against a Hawks offense that can erupt on a nightly basis, especially since Milwaukee’s biggest defensive issues have been on the perimeter.

But Milwaukee should also be angry here after an embarrassing loss in Chicago on Thursday night. They’ll have a great opportunity to run it up on a bottom-five Atlanta defense allowing 122.3 points per game. It’s also a revenge spot for the Bucks as Atlanta came in and beat them in late October, a game that got to 237 points with Milwaukee shooting terribly. But since they’re second in effective field goal rate I think they’ll clean that up and score enough to get over this big number.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Michigan/Oregon Over 148.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 2:30 PM CT on FS1

This game is the Rose Bowl we could’ve had, but I’ll settle for an excellent matchup on the hardwood instead. One thing I’ve been very surprised by so far this season is the excellent offense and faster pace from Oregon. I think that creates a shootout today against a Michigan team that’s always interested in playing up-tempo, plus it’s a matchup of two top-40 teams for adjusted offensive efficiency. With the Oregon defense really struggling the past couple games, that should make Michigan’s first true road game a little easier. KenPom makes this total 7.5 points higher, so I’ll look for these teams to get up and down the floor while keeping the offenses hot.

 

NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Northwestern State/Baylor First Half Over 74.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:00 PM CT on ESPN+

I’ll keep making these bets until the run ends, and then I’ll start right over again because it’s such a solid angle. Baylor is going to absolutely erupt in this game, and it will start early as usual. With the Bears up to 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, it’s simply unfair to put them up against the 357th team in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Northwestern State has reached that low point without having faced anything close to what they’ll see today. The two games where the Demons did face a functional offense saw first halves of 84 and 88 points though. Baylor doesn’t have many tune-ups left before their schedule gets real, so look for them to run it up early on this outmatched opponent.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 1722-1510 ATS (+90.9 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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