Locks
NFL (1 Unit) Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Atlanta Falcons Over 41 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
These teams came up well short of the posted total in their first meeting, scoring just 29 points. But the total today is 4 points higher than what it was in that game, and for good reason. These teams rolled up 730 yards of combined total offense in the first meeting, failing to convert anything in the red zone. I’m expecting better success today, especially with how the defenses are trending.
Both units are dealing with significant injuries, and that’s been only part of their regression stories. Tampa’s defense was allowing just 17.6 PPG before that first meeting, but are allowing 23.5 since, ranking 28th in EPA per play since Week 6. The Falcons are down to 25th in defensive DVOA, but are also much more potent offensively at home. With this game also moving indoors, expect poor defenses to be the story today.
NFL (1 Unit) Chicago Bears Team Total Over 20 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 12:00 PM CT on FOX
There are a lot of advantages in favor of Chicago here, and even if they don’t win today I think they’ll reach this number. The Lions have the worst defense in the league since Week 7 by DVOA metrics, and they just can’t cover or tackle. Part of that downswing defensively was giving up 26 to Chicago in the first meeting, a game where Justin Fields had just come back from injury. He’s now had a few more weeks to get back up to speed, plus the bye week to prepare for this game. Even if windy conditions pop up at Soldier Field, the excellent running ability of Fields should push the Detroit defense and get the Bears to this point total.
NFL (1 Unit) Indianapolis Colts Team Total Over 20.5 (-110; Odds via BetMGM): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
Colts team totals have been a gold mine this season, with Indy posting a 10-2 record over their individual number. With Cincinnati flipping to the favorite in this matchup, it knocks the Colts number down to an even more advantageous spot. Cincinnati is having a lot of trouble stopping anything right now, allowing 27.8 PPG the past 4 weeks. The full-game over has seen a lot of attention from smart money as weather reports improved for Cincinnati today, so I’ll go with the consistent Colts trend in what could be a shootout.
NFL (0.5 Unit) Houston Texans -3.5 @ NY Jets (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS
When the spread for this game opened at 6.5 in favor of Houston, I felt like that was pretty reasonable given the struggles for New York. But then the Jets handed the reigns back over to Zach Wilson and the number dropped 3 points to here. I just don’t believe that Zach Wilson is worth a 3 point upgrade over any quarterback, Tim Boyle or not. The Jets locker room can’t stand him, don’t want to play for him, and would just as soon collect their paycheck and go home today. The Texans scare me somewhat as a favorite and the hook is troubling, but it’s still Zach Wilson against an improving Houston defense so I’ll lay the points.
NFL (1 Unit) San Francisco 49ers Team Total Over 29.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 3:05 PM CT on FOX
I keep saying it, so one more time won’t hurt. Give the 49ers all their skill players and Trent Williams healthy, they’re a lock for about 4 touchdowns of offensive production against anyone. They’re now averaging 33.4 points in such games after their demolition of the Eagles last week, and should be out for more against a bad Seattle defense. The Seahawks couldn’t stop anything last week in Dallas, or the week before when San Fran visited them on Thanksgiving. The Brock Purdy MVP campaign is real, so look for the 49ers to do their usual bully routine and run it up on an outmatched opponent.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): San Francisco 49ers First Half Team Total Over 14.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
That bad Seattle defense has allowed 24 and 20 in the past two weeks before halftime, and should get lit up early again here. In their 9 games with a healthy offense, the 49ers are averaging 17.8 points before halftime, with no fewer than 13 in any of those games. The Seahawks might be more competitive early in this game, but even if it isn’t back and forth in the first half I’m seeing the 49ers get theirs.
NFL (1 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys Over 51.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC
It’s a Dallas home game so points are coming, especially from them. With my Cowboys averaging 41.0 points per game in Jerry World on the year, a total like this seems like nothing despite the low scores around the league this season. In their 6 games against opponents with functional offenses, the Cowboys have seen an average of 60.5 PPG and ironically only went under this total against Philadelphia.
But the Cowboys will be out for revenge in this one, and would love nothing more than to run it up as they tie the Eagles in the division standings. I certainly think they can against an Eagles secondary that’s been lit up in recent weeks, and now ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass. But the return of Dallas Goedert will really boost the Eagles offense, and help Jalen Hurts get rid of the ball faster against the fierce pass rush. I think we’re in for a bit of a shootout, but the Dallas home scoring trends set a really high floor to reach this total.
Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Dallas Cowboys First Half -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
In a big reversal of last season’s trends, the Eagles have just stopped being dominant in first halves. They’re scoring a full 6.5 points fewer before halftime this year compared to last, while allowing 3.2 more and ranking 25th in first half points allowed this season. That simply cannot be good news against Dallas, who ranks first in scoring before halftime and will be eager to jump on Philly early. The Cowboys hadn’t trailed at half in a home game until last week and led at halftime by 3 in Philadelphia a few weeks ago, so look for them to start strong again tonight.
NFL Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Desmond Ridder Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Mike Evans Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Rachaad White Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Mike Evans Anytime TD (+100)
0.5 Unit – Justin Fields Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Justin Fields Anytime TD (+200)
0.5 Unit – DJ Moore Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – DJ Moore Over 5.5 Receptions (+105)
0.75 Unit – Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions (-110)
0.5 Unit – Sam LaPorta Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Cole Kmet Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)
0.25 Unit – Zach Wilson Under 0.5 Passing TD’s (+110)
0.5 Unit – Devin Singletary Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Zack Moss Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – JaMarr Chase Over 6.5 Receptions (+110)
0.75 Unit – Joe Mixon Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Kyren Williams Over 92.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Puka Nacua Over 58.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Lamar Jackson Under 26.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
1 Unit – Justin Jefferson Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – TJ Hockenson Anytime TD (+190)
0.25 Unit – Jordan Addison Over 3.5 Receptions (+110)
0.5 Unit – Josh Jacobs Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 Unit – Deebo Samuel Over 67.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – DK Metcalf Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Brock Purdy Over 258.5 Passing Yards (-110)
0.75 Unit – Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Josh Allen Anytime TD (+140)
0.5 Unit – Gabe Davis Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Rashee Rice Over 5.5 Receptions (+115)
0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 2.5 Passing TD’s (+150)
0.75 Unit – Brandin Cooks Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (+105)
0.65 Unit – Brandin Cooks Over 3.5 Receptions (-130)
0.75 Unit – Jake Ferguson Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – CeeDee Lamb 125-plus Receiving Yards (+235)
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Prairie View A&M @ Iowa State -16.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 12:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Iowa State has really figured out this bully routine, just handing out beatings to anyone who enters Hilton Coliseum. The Clones have the country’s best average first half margin in home games at plus-25.0 points. They’ve also covered this number in every home game so far. The competition hasn’t been great, at least not until Thursday when they ran out Iowa by 18 in the first half. Prairie View is another bottom-tier opponent, so I don’t expect any change out of ISU today, especially since they’ll be able to pull away easily against such an anemic offense.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Michigan/Iowa Over 159.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:30 PM CT on BTN
Iowa returns home after an embarrassing beatdown in the CyHawk game, so I imagine they’ll be fired up to get their offense back on track. But welcoming Michigan’s 25th-best offense by adjusted efficiency into Carver Hawkeye is a recipe for points. Iowa can’t stop anything, certainly not high-quality offenses which have averaged 87.0 PPG against them this season, so Michigan will score easily. Two true road game brought Iowa’s shooting numbers down, but they’re shooting 51.1% on their home floor with a 57.0% effective field goal rate. Michigan’s defense has been subpar, so look for both teams to light it up today.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1766-1555 ATS (+89.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
