Locks
MLB (1.5 Unit) St Louis Cardinals/Texas Rangers Over 9.5 (-115; Odds via Fanduel): 7:05 PM CT on MLB Network
I’m mostly counting on the Rangers to keep hitting everything here, and take advantage of a weak pitcher here. Texas has been tearing the cover off the ball lately, with 4 games in their past 9 overall where they went over this total on their own.
After putting up 28 runs the past two days against good Seattle pitching, things get even easier against Adam Wainwright. The aging righty just doesn’t have it anymore, and this Rangers lineup is going to be really tough for him. Texas can stack up plenty of left-handed bats to take advantage of Wainwright’s .400 average and 1.134 OPS allowed to that side.
But the Cardinals should do plenty at the plate today too, facing Martin Perez whose strong April fell apart with a 6.91 ERA and 1.72 WHIP last month. St Louis has been strong against lefties, and this hitters’ park should help their offense participate in what I think is a slugfest.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Chicago Cubs +0.5 First 5 Innings @ San Diego Padres (-105; Odds via Caesars): 8:10 PM CT on ESPN+
I think there’s a very likely scenario where this game is tied 0-0 after 5 innings, which earns the win on getting half a run with Chicago. The biggest factor for me is San Diego’s complete inability to hit right-handed pitching, as the Padres are 29th in average and only 5 points ahead of Oakland for dead last. They’re also bottom-5 in just about every other metric, and facing Kyle Hendricks who looks fully healthy after dominating the Rays last time out.
But even if the cold Padre bats put something together early – which they haven’t in the other two games of this series against a righty starter – I think the Cubs can get something going offensively. Chicago is in their vastly preferred split here against a lefty, and even though it’s Blake Snell he just doesn’t scare me that much anymore. The struggling Padres really don’t scare me in general, and are priced this way on perception alone. So I’ll back Chicago early where I think they have a slight edge in starters, before the excellent Padres bullpen gets involved.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1321-1161 ATS (+71.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
