Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/17

Locks

NFL (0.5 Unit) Green Bay Packers +2 @ Atlanta Falcons (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

It’s scary when a favorite flips in the NFL, and that’s what happened here as the Packers were laying a small number earlier in the week. But as long as Desmond Ridder is the quarterback that needs to beat me, I’ll go with a Green Bay team that made a statement in their opener.

The Pack dispatched with one NFC weakling getting too much hype last week by trouncing the Bears, and here comes another. The Falcons will likely finish the season as a paper tiger given their easy schedule overall, but this game isn’t part of that. The Packers should win a slugfest here in a game where the Packers and I will both dare Ridder to beat us.

 

NFL (0.75 Unit) Baltimore Ravens +3.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I want Lamar Jackson and Jim Harbaugh on my side when they’re catching points. In regular season games Jackson has played when listed as the underdog, Baltimore is 10-1-1 ATS and 8-4 straight up. Add in that Harbaugh is 18-8-1 ATS in his career as a divisional underdog, and that makes for quite the profitable QB-coach combination.

We talked about it on my podcast for two weeks now about how the Bengals always start slowly, especially with Joe Burrow still nursing that calf injury. I think the Ravens defensive front makes life difficult for the hobbled QB, keeps Baltimore close, and gives the Jackson/Harbaugh duo a chance to record another ATS or straight-up win.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Ravens/Bengals Under 46 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

The side is suspiciously short in this game, and the total is suspiciously high, signaling traps on both in my opinion. I mentioned Burrow and the Bengals starting slowly, and that translates to the offense as Burrow’s September starts are 10-2 to the under with 8 straight. Baltimore’s secondary is vulnerable, but I don’t think the Cincy offense is on track yet to exploit it. This total reflects a scenario where both offenses are healthy and operating at peak efficiency, but that just isn’t the case right now so I’m looking under.

 

NFL (0.75 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs/Jacksonville Jaguars Over 51 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

This is a game where I do think we’ll see offenses operating at peak efficiency, as the week’s best game has shootout written all over it. With the Chiefs having extra time to stew over their ugly performance in the opener, plus getting Travis Kelce back, I think they turn it on offensively.

That effort to make a statement will create a game script that Jacksonville certainly won’t shy away from, as the Jaguars were aggressive offensively last week. The Jags put up 31 points despite two failed fourth downs at midfield, but also gave up more than they should to a bad rookie quarterback. Facing the best QB in the NFL with his favorite weapon back will be tough, and I see these teams trading shots all game long.

 

NFL (0.75 Unit) Indianapolis Colts +1 @ Houston Texans (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I don’t know what to say about this game, or why I’d want to bet on what’s guaranteed to be a disgusting display of football. I guess I like flipping coins for money, it’s a sickness. The Colts are just the lesser of two evils here and have had success against Houston the past decade until last year, so maybe they’ll return to that. I don’t know, flip a coin.

 

NFL (1 Unit) Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

Another awful game featuring the team (Chicago) with the worst ATS record since 2019, against the quarterback (Baker Mayfield) that’s 269th of 275 QB’s the past 20 years for ATS profitability. It’s not a compelling slate this week, give me a break. The Bears looked over-hyped as I mentioned above, and while the Bucs were mostly gifted their win in Minnesota, they still have a defense that can stop the run. If they use that to keep Justin Fields from going wild on the ground, they’ll be in position to win this by at least a field goal.

 

NFL (0.75 Unit Each) Miami Dolphins/NE Patriots Over 46.5 and Dolphins Team Total Over 24.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:20 PM CT on NBC

I have a feeling this total was lined with some expectation of Hurricane Lee impacting the Boston area during this game. But that doesn’t look like the case anymore, and both offenses should be able to produce. While it is Bill Belichick and his defensive wizardry will be at play, I don’t know that there’s an answer to what Miami is doing on offense right now. Their creativity in routes and play design is something entirely new to the NFL, and will test even this Patriots defense. But the Dolphins still have issues defensively, and Mac Jones actually looked good once he settled in last week. I’ll count on both teams and Miami in particular to put up solid offensive numbers again tonight.

 

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys -3: 3:25 PM CT on CBS

Of course my Cowboys are going to be anchoring just about every teaser I put in this week. It’s just too good of an opportunity to get them under a field goal against Zach Wilson, a beat-up offensive line, and a team on a short week. Dallas showed what their pass rush can be against another vulnerable offensive line from New York, and I think it creates more nightmares here. Wilson is a turnover machine on a good day, so with pressure on him all game long I just don’t see how the Jets score enough to stay this close.

Baltimore Ravens +9.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

For all the reasons I like the Ravens at +3.5, I love them at more than a full possession’s worth of points. Even if Baltimore finds themselves trailing, the back door to this number is wide open against a downgraded Bengals secondary for this season. This many points in a divisional game is something I simply have to jump on given the trends and matchup.

 

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6-Points Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

I said how I like this game to be a shootout, and that means easy points for both teams. Easy enough where the Jaguars can and should keep this close, or at least find their way in the back door for such a big number as a home team. Jacksonville is actually excellent as a home underdog since Doug Pederson took over, going 5-0 straight up in those games last season. Kansas City’s secondary is still their biggest weakness, so the Jags can find their way to this number late if need be.

New York Giants +1.5 @ Arizona Cardinals: 3:05 PM CT on FOX

I don’t think either of these teams showed their true self last week, with the Giants underperforming and the Cardinals over performing. Recall that Arizona was gifted 7 of their 16 points, and looked fairly lost otherwise on offense. I have to expect a response from the Giants as well after getting embarrassed, which can happen against the Cowboys who are a bad matchup for them. Brian Daboll always got this team back up after a loss last year, and Daniel Jones has always been better on the road. So while I’m hesitant to lay an awkward number with them, I think this teased number is a much better way to back the Giants.

 

NFL (0.75 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Buffalo Bills -2.5: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

You won’t get me to lay a big number with Buffalo here, it’s just not smart in the NFL. But I can definitely see a scenario where an embarrassed Bills squad takes out their frustrations on what is still supposed to be a bad Raiders team. The defense in Las Vegas is still bad, worlds different than what Josh Allen and the Bills struggled against on Monday night. This could be a blowout, but I’ll just ask the Bills to essentially get the win since Josh Allen is 16-1 straight up when laying more than a touchdown at home.

New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys -3: 3:25 PM CT on CBS

Another teaser, another opportunity to anchor it with the Cowboys. The books didn’t build enough teaser protection into this line, what else am I supposed to do as a Cowboys fan?

 

NFL Prop Bets (-110 Each; Odds via DraftKings)

(1 Unit) Tua Tagovailoa Over 265.5 Passing Yards

(1 Unit) Matthew Stafford Over 226.5 Passing Yards

(0.75 Unit) Josh Allen Over 268.5 Passing Yards

(0.75 Unit) Patrick Mahomes Over 38.5 Pass Attempts

(0.75 Unit) Mac Jones Over 34.5 Pass Attempts

 

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Chicago Sky @ Las Vegas Aces -10 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on ABC

I’m not saying you need to get distracted from football for this, but I am saying it’s worth betting on. The Aces put their dominance on display in Game 1 of this series, controlling it from start to finish, and I think they keep the pedal down here. The dominance that led to a 17-point halftime lead and 28-point win actually left room for improvement, as the Aces shot just 43.2% from the floor compared to 51.8% against Chicago across the three regular season meetings. Las Vegas has played the Sky at home twice on the year, led at halftime by 17 in both, and should roll early today as well.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

Tiny Nick is 1505-1356 ATS (+67.2 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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