Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/19

Locks

MLB (0.75 Unit) LA Angels/Tampa Bay Rays Over 8 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Sun

This is just too low of a number for a game with poor starting pitching for both teams, and awful relief pitching in the case of the Angels. It’s a total collapse in LA down the stretch, and I think the Rays show no mercy as they’ve beaten up on bad teams all year. These teams also played a wild series a month ago with 50 runs across the 3 games. While LA’s offense has taken a big step back since then, they should still be able to contribute something here.

That’s not terribly difficult against arguably Tampa’s worst starter in Taj Bradley, who has a 6.80 ERA across his past 10 starts, which have gone 6-1-3 over this total. But the biggest gas can pitchers here are wearing Angels uniforms, with Patrick Sandoval continuing his awful month. His September starts have seen the opponent score 20 total runs, with just 14 of them earned. Regardless, Sandoval and a bad bullpen should get hit hard by the Rays who might get to this total themselves.

 

MLB (0.5 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+120; Odds via DraftKings)

San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks -150: 8:40 PM CT on ARID

I’m starting this parlay with a Cy Young contender at home, where he’s been at his best. Zach Gallen goes for the Diamondbacks today at Chase Field, where they’re 11-3 when he starts. His 2.18 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in home games is what’s keeping him in the Cy Young conversation. The Giants have their own starter with home/road splits that should factor in here, as Alex Cobb’s road ERA is nearly triple what it is at home. Cobb also allows a .307 opponent batting average on the road, so a hot Snakes team should give Gallen enough run support to get this win.

Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres -300: 8:40 PM CT on SDPA

I’m closing this parlay with the pitcher who is likely to win the NL Cy Young, as Blake Snell has been dominant down the stretch. The Padres are 9-1 in Snell’s past 10 starts, where he has a 1.98 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. While I’m usually hesitant to back San Diego against a right-handed pitcher, I just don’t see them losing this game to a bad Rockies squad. The Padres are fairly hot right now, especially against mediocre pitching which they’ll see tonight. With a concerted effort to get their ace some big-time hardware, I think San Diego pulls away in this one to close the parlay.

Degenerates

WNBA Atlanta Dream @ Dallas Wings -6.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN

The Wings needed a record comeback from 20 points down to take Game 1 of this series, but I think it will wake them up for tonight. They were only in that 20-point hole thanks to insanely hot shooting from Atlanta, with Rhyne Howard in particular going wild from deep. All season long the Dream were a bottom-3 shooting team in the league, so I’m not worried about a repeat performance on their end. Dallas has been the far superior team all season, and has shown it in every meeting. A record of 4-0 both straight up and ATS with a plus-9.7 cover margin against Atlanta this season is impressive. I think they start much better in this game defensively, and close it out with another win by margin.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 1517-1362 ATS (+73.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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