Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 9/25


NFL (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia Eagles/Tampa Bay Bucs Under 45 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:15 PM CT on ABC

Both of these teams have been lucky to score as much as they have in the first two games this season. Both benefited from playing the awful Vikings defense, and Tampa got their other game against the train wreck that is Chicago’s defense. I think the scoring that resulted will slow down here as two teams reliant on defense face off.

The Eagles and Jalen Hurts definitely appear to be suffering from the typical Super Bowl loser’s hangover so far, and injuries aren’t helping them. Their ground-based offense is going to struggle against a Bucs team that still has one of the best run defenses around. And I don’t trust Baker Mayfield to produce against a defensive front that can keep him pressured all game. Primetime games have trended heavily to the under in recent seasons (61%) and this year at 6-2, so look for both offenses to struggle against tough defenses.


NFL (0.75 Unit) LA Rams Team Total Over 20.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ESPN

The Rams have gone over this total in both games so far, including last week against a defense far superior to what they’ll see tonight. Sean McVay is showing why he’s known for offensive excellence, and Matthew Stafford is having a resurgence. Cincinnati meanwhile has looked awful defensively to add another problem to their Joe Burrow injury situation. The re-made secondary has been pretty poor, and they’ve allowed 25.5 PPG to pedestrian offenses as a result. I think the Rams can produce here behind Stafford, and get to and past the 3 touchdown mark.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Matthew Stafford Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Stafford hit his passing yards prop with ease last week, so I’m going back to that well against a much worse defense as I mentioned above. This number is far higher than last week, but I just don’t think the Bengals can stop him. He’s actually gone over this number in 18 of his 28 games with the Rams and been close in several others. Stafford should take advantage of the porous secondary and find his way over this number.



No degenerates today.



Tiny Nick is 1522-1369 ATS (+73.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.

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