With the 2023 MLB season officially kicked into high-gear, it’s officially time to make some more bold, and often dumb, predictions for the hometown nine. Maybe it’s the confidence of a good off-season starting to bloom. Perhaps it’s the eternal hope for the best when it comes to a chosen club. Maybe it’s just an easy write for a beleaguered blogger who just wants to watch baseball non-stop for the next six months. Whatever the case may be, bold productions keep the Minnesota Twins’ blogosphere spinning.
Last year, my article with three unhinged forecasts was a mixed bag. On one hand, I accurately predicted that Devin Smeltzer would start more games for the Twins than Bailey Ober. Smeltzer started 12 games while injuries limited Ober to only 11 appearances as the starting pitcher. Part of that was due to health ailments when it comes to the latter more so than stellar performance from the former. But it still counts as a feather in my cap.
I also predicted that two Twins rookies would surpass two wins above replacement, and neither would be Royce Lewis or Austin Martin, the two highest ranked prospects in the system at the time. Joe Ryan surpassed that total according to FanGraphs, who had him at a 2.1 WAR. However, a second rookie failed to live up to my prediction. Jhoan Durán eclipsed 1.5 WAR and José Miranda was the closest hitter with 1.1 WAR.
My last prediction went about as well as that time my friend put aluminum foil in the microwave. I said that Miguel Sanó would lead all American League first baseman in home runs at the midseason break, and that he would be selected as a starter in the All Star game. Like my friend’s microwave, this one went down in flames pretty quickly.
Even after being burned by that last one, I’m back again with two intriguing predictions for this year’s Twins club.
Prediction 1: Jovani Moran will save more games than Jhoan Durán
This prediction is tricky based on a few factors. First and foremost, Durán is by far the most dangerous reliever in Minnesota’s system, and he’s in the conversation for nastiest bullpen arm in the league. Durán boasts triple-digit heat on two different pitches, with a devastating curveball pairing to boot. While stellar in the first few months of last season, Durán hit a new gear in the second half where he boasted a 1.05 ERA and a monstrous 37.6% strikeout rate. That sets him up to head into the 2023 campaign as the top gun out of the Twins’ bullpen.
However, that won’t necessarily mean that he is bound to saving the most games. The club could opt to use him in the highest-leverage spots in the game, even if it’s not the final three outs. Since he is the strongest arm at their disposal, the decision makers may want to see him face the opponents’ strongest hitters, even if it means using someone else to save the game. That’s similar to what they did for a good portion of last season. Despite being such a weapon, and maintaining good health all year, Durán only had eight saves last year.
I could have used a few different alternative savers in this prediction, but I chose Moran for a few reasons. First, he is still a rookie because he has 48 ⅔ innings under his belt at the major league level, and a player needs to surpass 50 innings to no longer be a rookie. To make the prediction bold, I needed someone with a shot at accomplishing this feat, but not a likelihood of doing so. Second, Moran has been quite good in his young career despite lacking an extensive prospect pedigree. He has a 3.14 ERA and nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings thanks to a plus changeup and the lack of an extreme splits dropoff.
Prediction 2: The Twins will deal for an ace at the trade deadline
Call it wishful thinking if you must, This prediction is centered on a couple factors. The first one is the idea that the Twins will be in playoff contention by the time August rolls around. I’m quite optimistic when it comes to this year’s club, but they are far from a lock to be on top of the playoff bracket. Second, this prediction assumes that the team will be in contention while having a need in their starting rotation.
This year’s crop of hurlers looks balanced and much deeper than in years’ past, with five established arms penciled into the major-league rotation and four or five top prospects ready to step in from the minor-league ranks.
However, Minnesota’s rotation depth chart lacks an undisputed ace-caliber arm that gets the nod in the first game of a playoff series. Sonny Gray, Pablo López and Joe Ryan all look the part as likely starters in a hypothetical postseason series, but none would be considered league-wide aces.
It’s a pivotal year for this front office. After two disappointing seasons heading into 2023, the seats are starting to get hot for the team’s decision-makers. Are they in imminent danger of losing their jobs? Probably not, but nothing would buy them more time in their roles like an end to the franchise’s dreaded playoff losing streak. The best way to accomplish that is to go overboard when the iron is hot. Thankfully, they have some intriguing prospect capital if they choose to go shopping.
That could mean bidding farewell to Edouard Julien, Simeon Woods Richardson, Emmanuel Rodriguez or even the blue chippers such as Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee. If any of those are the case, the return would need to be an impact arm such as Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers, Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks or even the legend himself, Shohei Ohtani.
Prediction 3: Miguel Sanó will Win Comeback Player of the Year with the New York Yankees
Just in case you were craving more aluminum foil in the microwave.
