Twins

3 Twins Prospects Who Are Off to Slow Starts

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not just the big-league club that is battling inconsistency in the first third of the 2023 season. A handful of promising young prospects in the Minnesota Twins organization are also having slow starts to their campaigns. It’s not unheard of for young players to go through ups and downs, especially in the low-minors. However, a few of these names that are going through the wringer are pretty notable.

Luckily, Brooks Lee (No. 1 prospect according to MLB Pipeline) and Royce Lewis (No. 2) are off to encouraging starts. They have the most immediate and long-term value to the club and are holding their own in the upper-minors and the major leagues, respectively.

However, these other three names are having trouble rediscovering the promising results that landed them in the upper echelon of Minnesota’s prospects. Hopefully this is their opportunity to overcome adversity and make adjustments as they continue to progress. But until then, it’s hard to see their first couple months of action in 2023 as anything other than a disappointment based on results.

Emmanuel Rodriguez

The consensus “next man up” after Lee and Lewis on virtually every other organizational prospect ranking list, Rodriguez has battled through injuries and a staggering strikeout rate in 2023. He’s currently in High-A Cedar Rapids, where he’s more than two years younger than the average player at that level and hitting .163/.320/.357 (.677 OPS) in 27 games played. Although that’s a disappointing clip for a highly-touted 20 year old, Rodriguez has displayed incredible raw power with five mammoth home runs. Going into the year, MLB Pipeline had high hopes for the young outfielder’s bat.

“Rodriguez’s best tool continues to be his tremendous raw power, with a combination of bat speed and plate discipline allowing him to tap into it fairly consistently already,” they said. “He makes a ton of hard contact and should continue to show the ability to drive the ball as he moves up the organizational ladder.”

However, they didn’t anticipate a regression when it came to mounting strikeouts. In a month’s worth of action, Rodriguez has a worrisome 38.5% strikeout rate, and has failed to make consistent, hard contact that evaluators thought would make him a nationally-known prospect commodity. He still draws walks at a decent 18% rate, which is encouraging. Maybe he can find his footing as the season goes on. He wasn’t gunning for a big-league promotion this year, so it would be wise to let him work through his struggles before casting him off as a bust.

Jose Salas

Pablo Lopez was the centerpiece in the trade that sent Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins. But the inclusion of Salas (and to a lesser extent, Byron Chourio) ultimately moved the deal across the finish line. The teenage infielder was a borderline Top 100 national prospect with the Marlins, and the Twins figured he could be an asset with a little more refinement. It also helps that his younger brother, Ethan Salas, was the top international prospect of last year’s class. MLB Pipelined ranked Ethan Salas No. 86 among all prospects on their national list.

But the elder Salas’ debut with his new organization hasn’t gone to plan so far in 2023. His current .159/.232/.225 (.457 OPS) for High-A Cedar Rapids is underwhelming. Any steam he had toward a national ranking has dissipated for the time being. His speed and projectable power are his defining traits, and scouts think that he should be able to stick at second base if he has to move off of shortstop as he matures.

“There’s room for considerable weight here and he could be a 25-30 homer bat at second base,” said Matt Thompson in his scouting report for Prospects Live. “If the frame expands like I think it should he will likely be limited to second base but that bat is what will carry the profile. He has some length to the swing and will strikeout, but that doesn’t matter as much if he can tap into the power.”

That’s an encouraging projection for Salas, but the concerns about his whiff-heavy approach have eclipsed his promise thus far. He has a 28% strikeout rate in High-A, and his overall offensive production has been roughly 63% worse than league-average. Look for him to refine his approach as he builds muscle and progresses into his early-20s and beyond.

David Festa

Last year, the 6’6” Festa out of Seton Hall University was one of the biggest breakouts in the organization. After the Twins took him in the 13th round of the 2021 draft, Festa had a 2.43 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP in 103 innings across two levels in his first full season. He’s picked up a few ticks on his fastball each year, reportedly topping out at 98 mph on a regular basis. He also features some enticing secondary pitches that scouts tout as potential above-average offerings in the near future.

But those tantalizing ingredients haven’t blended as planned in 2023. Festa has struggled in his eight starts with Double-A Wichita, sporting a 5.08 ERA with a sky-high 1.49 WHIP across 33 innings. His strikeout potential is still there, with an 11.2 K/9 and a healthy swinging-strike rate at 14.8%. However, Festa’s walks have creeped upwards, with 16 already given out this year (4.3 BB/9).
Still, evaluators love the 23-year-old’s future outlook.

“He’s routinely touching 98, his slider also has premium velocity in the upper-80s, and Festa is great at killing the spin on his mid-80s changeup,” said Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs. “He has freaky feel for strikes for a 6-foot-6 guy, and his velocity keeps climbing and climbing without detracting from that ability.”

If he can rein in his walks while keeping his high-whiff offerings at a high level, Festa could get back on track in a hurry. And if that happens, we could see him with the big league club sometime in 2024.

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