Amidst the issues emanating from the loss of two rotation pieces, there was a moment of bliss. Bailey Ober filled in when Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda got injured, and it could not have gone better. Ober took fans on a trip to the wonderful world of high-heat and slippery sliders. Bailey pitched seven scoreless innings against the Cleveland Guardians, giving up three hits, issuing one walk, and striking out six.
Ober has always been keen to turn the heat way up, just not in the way that a radar gun picks up on. His fastball doesn’t just live in the penthouse, it lives on the roof. This year, 80.8% of the fastballs he throws are high in the zone, and only 38.5% of them are in the zone. The MLB average for both of those stats is about 50%, so Ober is an anomaly. Considering his hot start, Ober may need only to listen to his own advice. I think there could be a next step up for him, and he can take it by using Triston McKenzie’s blueprint from last year.
McKenzie and Ober don’t have much in common, outside of their height. However, neither of them has exceptional velocity, and both of them had the same arsenal until last year. Ober still throws a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seamer, slider, curveball, and a changeup. Triston dropped his changeup last year, and he’d gradually weaned it out the last few years.
Ober’s four-seamer sits 90-92 mph with a high downward break from its combination of low velocity and low active spin. McKenzie throws a little harder (91-93 mph). However, he throws his fastball with much more active spin, giving his fastball more rise (low amount of downward break) than Ober’s. That’s not necessarily a good thing. Actually, it’s the exact opposite. McKenzie’s fastball is a dead zone fastball, meaning it doesn’t have ideal rise to garner whiffs nor does it have ideal sink to induce grounders.
The point is that neither of their fastballs has eye-popping traits that are most sought after today. Regardless, McKenzie was able to achieve a sub-3.00 ERA last season using his strengths to diminish his weaknesses. He struggled to limit walks at times and, as is natural with high fastballs, hitters crushed his fastball crushed when they didn’t miss.
McKenzie’s slider and curveball long had exciting whiff potential (44% for each) to go along with solid chase rates (~35% for both). Improving his fastball would tie his effective secondary pitches together into one complete package. By throwing his fastball for more strikes (from 48% to 54%) and lower (24% to 20% high zone percentage) in the zone, McKenzie was able to limit walks and damaging hits. He also decreased the usage of his fastball (62% down to 56%) to allow room for more breaking balls.
To summarize, McKenzie “hid” his fastball high above the zone too often, which resulted in a walk rate of 11.7%. Though it can cause more hard contact, throwing it lower and for more strikes allowed him to dice up batters with his sharp breaking balls.
Ober’s breaking balls are just as impressive if not more than McKenzie’s. Ober uses his slider and changeup as his “out pitches,” with both of them achieving elite chase rates (O-Swing%). His slider achieved an absurd 42.7% with his changeup managing an also impressive 36.8% last year. Ober possesses something that his comparison does not have – a third “out pitch.” He doesn’t use his curveball as often, but it’s also had success with a 38.1% chase rate this year.
Ober has not had the same issues McKenzie has had with walks. However, he is issuing them at a career-high 8.8% this year. Utilizing his fastball lower in the zone would allow its natural traits to be fully unlocked, while also likely returning him to his fantastic walk rates. Continuing to use his fastball as infrequently as possible while leaning more on his secondaries could benefit him.
