We all know what a Minnesota Twins pitching staff looks like. A squad of dutiful strike-throwers who get the ball over the plate knowing that Walks Will Haunt. It’s been a constant over the past two decades, even through the leanest pitching seasons. Since 2000, Minnesota has only ranked lower than 16th in BB/9 in two seasons: 2012 (18th) and 2018 (29th).
Minnesota’s longtime pitching coach under former general manager Terry Ryan, Rick Anderson, ingrained this philosophy into the organization. Limiting baserunners was wise for the mid-market Twins in the parsimonious days of the early 2000s. If you can’t afford anyone who can blow hitters away, you might as well not give them free passes to first base.
That worked well when the rotation had an ace in Johan Santana, but also a stable of pitchers who had other talents than getting the ball over the plate like Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, and Scott Baker. As those names started giving way to the likes of Kevin Correia, Scott Diamond, and Ricky Nolasco, it seemed more and more like Anderson was buying too deeply into the dogma of pumping strikes. Twins fans saw the limits of it and yearned for the days when the rotation would be willing to BB-reak some eggs to make a K-uiche.
Fast-forward to 2023, and the Twins have ridden their fifth-in-ERA starting rotation to a 30-27 record, despite a complete lack of offense. How? By embracing modern pitching advancements, joining the rest of the MLB in jacking up the velocity, and getting strikeouts, of course. They’re striking out a league-leading 9.83 batters per 9, which is a sentence that would be unfathomable to type in the distant past. And also, March.
But what stands out here is how very Twins-like this rotation is. Minnesota’s sticking to these old Rick Anderson ways. Only the Seattle Mariners’ starters walk fewer batters than the Twins’ 2.39 mark. They are also second to Seattle with a 66.8 strike percentage and also the importance of getting ahead of hitters. Minnesota’s pitchers throw a strike on the first pitch 65.4% of the time, third in MLB.
The Twins Way is nearly universal with their staff, led by their most Radke-like strike-throwers, Louie Varland and Joe Ryan. Among the 111 starting pitchers with 40-plus innings, they rank 10th and 12th, respectively, in walks per nine. Ryan gets a strike 70.9% of the time, which is tied for first among 71 qualified pitchers, along with Seattle’s George Kirby, per TeamRankings. Once Varland gets qualified, he’ll be right up there with him, as Varland’s strike percentage is a staggering 69.8%, which would rank third.
The fun doesn’t stop with those two, though. Pablo López is eighth among qualified pitchers, earning a strike on 67.5% of his pitches. Once Bailey Ober qualifies, he’ll join the Pablo López range, as his 65.9% would put him just outside the league’s top-20.
Sonny Gray is the only outlier in the bunch. He has seemed to make the strikeouts-for-control trade. His walk rate ballooned from 2.71 last year (comparable to López’ 2.65 this season) to 3.58 free passes per nine. That’s come with an uptick in fastball velocity and a huge leap in strikeouts, though. He went from 8.80 K/9 to 10.29, a 1.5 punch-out jump per nine innings. A bit against the grain, but with a 1.94 ERA and 2.20 FIP, who’s complaining?
Limiting walks was never a bad thing, of course. It only because stagnant in the Twins’ organization because they paired that philosophy with limited pitchers. The difference between then and now is that this Twins rotation can actually miss bats while throwing it over the plate.
Of the 111 pitchers with 40-plus innings, Lopez (seventh), Ryan (10th), Varland (25th), and Ober (29th) rank in the league’s top-30 in swinging strike percentage. They go about it in different ways, sure. Lopez and Varland rely on 95 mph heat, while Ryan and Ober use deception. But the result is the same. They have a pitch-to-contact mindset, just without all that pesky contact.
It’s been huge this season. With this updated version of the Ryan/Anderson Way, the starting staff fixed their biggest flaw from last year: their starters not being able to pitch deep into games.
Minnesota is second in baseball in innings pitched by their starter, with the Toronto Blue Jays’ rotation throwing one more inning. The average start of 5 2/3 of an inning doesn’t seem big in itself, but it’s a touch deceptive. Remember, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle had injury-shortened starts weighing that down a bit. López, Ryan, and Varland are giving the Twins nearly six innings every outing.
The strike-pumping mindset these starters have is a big reason for that. Without wasting pitches on balls, the Twins are able to get out of innings efficiently. They keep their pitch count low enough to the point where it’s barely a factor when considering whether they can pitch deep into games.
Among the 71 qualified starters, Pablo López ranks 21st in throwing 15.66 pitches per inning, or 94 per six innings. Ryan is 23rd with 15.72, and if Varland (15.61) and Ober (15.79) qualified, they’d be right in that mix. That’s four pitchers who, on average, need 95 or fewer pitches to get through six innings. That’s great news for a bullpen that got overtaxed last season.
So dust off that Walks Will Haunt shirt and wear it without shame again. Do your best Bert Blyleven impersonation and extol the virtues of getting the ball over the plate. This bizarro version of the Rick Anderson Twins is single-handedly keeping them afloat in a playoff race in which its offense has had no business participating. The Old Twins and New Twins are meeting on the mound, and the results are spectacular.
