Full squad workouts are underway in Fort Myers. Coming into camp, the Minnesota Twins’ Opening Day roster seems pretty set on paper. Carlos Correa is back, Christian Vazquez becomes the primary catcher and joins Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor as additional veteran help around the diamond.
Barring any injuries, it seems clear which 13 position players will head north at the end of March. The starting lineup for the most part is set position by position for Opening Day. But how will Rocco Baldelli arrange his lineup throughout the season? Modern baseball has been increasingly fluid with lineup construction, and the Twins are no different.
However, there will still be parts of the lineup that stay somewhat consistent. Last year, the ABC lineup of Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton, and Correa was hitting in the top three spots. Looking deeper, there is no clear-cut No. 1 hitter at the top of the lineup. Therefore, it will be interesting to see how the Twins split that workload, especially after trading Arraez to the Miami Marlins.
The Twins had different leadoff hitters in 2022, but Buxton and Arraez were the most notable options throughout the season. However, Baldelli mixed in a few others here and there. Arraez spent the most time at the leadoff spot for the Twins last season (91 appearances). Buxton was behind him with 50 appearances. The next-highest player? José Miranda with seven leadoff appearances.
Buxton was put more prominently in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career. Coming up as a prospect and early big leaguer, Buxton’s ability to pick up multiple bases through his bat and speed seemed like a foregone conclusion to be a true No. 1 hitter. Buxton has grown into that type of player now. He slashed .224/.306/.526 last season. Despite only swiping six stolen bases in 2022, he’s a clear and present danger to create havoc on the basepaths.
It always felt like Baldelli should pencil Buxton in as the leadoff hitter every time he’s in the lineup. However, like other teams, the Twins try to play with lineups to give themselves a competitive advantage, even though it’s not where a player would traditionally go.
Arraez’s ability to get on base and work an at-bat made Arraez a great leadoff hitter. He averaged 4.01 pitchers per at-bat, just above the 3.90 league average. Traditionally, a leadoff hitter’s job is to work the count to make the opposing pitcher work, allowing the rest of the lineup know how a pitcher is throwing from the first at-bat. Basically, avoid some of the higher strikeout numbers that Buxton has. Arraez also knew how to get on base and put the pitcher in the stretch early while giving the more run-producing hitters a chance for the offense to bring him around to score.
However, after trading Arraez, the Twins are going to need to rely on some other players to be a leadoff hitter. Buxton’s health has limited him in the past, especially if Minnesota is going to load-managed him when healthy. Therefore, there needs to be another option behind him.
Interestingly, Correa never led off last year. That’s not a bad thing, generally speaking, considering he seems like a true No. 3 hitter. But the Twins like to shuffle hitters around the batting order, so it’s notable that Baldelli never put him there. Maybe 2023 is the year that he logs some more appearances leading off the lineup. Still, considering the team never put him there, it’s safe to assume the plan isn’t for Correa to see considerable time leading off.
Miranda is in a similar situation. The Twins would likely want to put that in the middle of the lineup, especially if he takes another step with his power. That will give him more opportunities to have runners on base. Max Kepler likely will be toward the bottom of the batting order rather than the top. Alex Kirilloff has the potential to be a top-of-the-lineup hitter considering his .359/.465/.641 Triple-A slash line when he was healthy last season. However, Minnesota appears to be taking things slow with Kirilloff, so throwing him into consistent No. 1 hitting duty doesn’t seem right. He’ll have to earn that privilege by starting toward the bottom of the batting order first.
Outside of Buxton, Jorge Polanco feels like the other prime leadoff candidate. He had six appearances in the leadoff spot for the Twins last season and 27 in 2021. When he led off last season, Polanco batted .360 with nine hits, three doubles, and one home run.
Last season, Polanco’s 14.4 percent walk rate was a career-high since becoming a full-time major league player. When it comes to working the count though, he averages 4.27 pitches per at-bat, just above the league average. He may not be the most polished leadoff hitter, but he makes up for it with consistent production with his bat. Polanco is a .270/.334/.445 hitter with 111 wRC+ over his career.
The most realistic scenario is that the Twins will shuffle around the leadoff hitter spot until they find a groove through at the position. But there will ultimately be a player or two who take on the majority of those appearances. Arraez will be a tough hitter to truly replace in the leadoff spot. Even though he’s gone, the Twins have another good contact hitter in Polanco to take the reins. Buxton can also mash the ball from the leadoff spot to spark the offense. At the very least, Minnesota has multiple viable and exciting options for the top of the lineup. Buxton and Polanco put the Twins in the best spot to do just that. .
