The Minnesota Twins’ starting pitching depth looked like their biggest strength heading into the season. Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda rounded out one of the most talented Twins rotations in the last 15 years. If anything, it was definitely the deepest starting pitching unit Minnesota has ever assembled.
It wasn’t just the top five pitchers who made the rotation so intriguing, though. Two other young arms, Bailey Ober and Louie Varland, are big-league caliber starting pitchers who the Twins left off the Opening Day roster because of their starting pitcher depth. Obert or Varland would have earned a spot on most of the rotations in baseball. Instead, they had to wait, pitching in Triple-A and making occasional spot starts through the first month of the season.
In the short term, those spot start assignments are now a prolonged stay in the majors. The Twins added Maeda to the 15-day injured list with a right tricep strain on April 29. A day later, they decided to shut Mahle down for the next four weeks. Mahle had multiple starts where he showed below-average velocity and general arm fatigue. Now it looks like Twins fans are going to be seeing quite a bit of Obert and Varland over the next several weeks.
Ober and Varland seem like they are going to be core parts of Minnesota’s rotation for the next several years. One or both of them could spend the rest of the season in the big-league rotation. However, one is more likely to produce at a higher rate for the Twins this season.
Ober debuted in 2021 and is already a sneaky veteran. Injuries have limited Ober to only 33 major-league starts over 159.2 innings. When healthy, Ober is a solid pitcher. He has a 3.66 career ERA and a 24.2 percent strikeout rate. Ober has a 6’9” frame, but he is not a flamethrower. He has an average fastball velocity of 92.2 MPH despite the big frame and long wingspan. Outside of the fastball (50.8), Ober’s other pitches in his arsenal include a slider (21.5), changeup (19.2), and curveball (8.5).
Health has been Ober’s biggest impediment to being a mainstay in Minnesota’s rotation. In 2021, the Twins made a point to lighten his workload in his first big league season. Ober made the team out of Spring Training last year, but a groin injury limited him to 56 innings. Health isn’t the only test for Ober. We’ll also have to see if he can consistently go deep into ball games for the first time in his career.
Like Ober, Varland has been a quick riser to the big leagues over the last couple of seasons. The back-to-back minor league pitcher of the year in Minnesota’s farm system made his big-league debut last September. Varland has a 3.94 career ERA in 32 innings over six starts, with a league-average 22.1 percent strikeout rate. Varland’s pitch repertoire consists of a fastball (28.9), cutter (37.3), slider (16.9), and changeup (16.9).
The small sample size makes projecting Varland’s big-league ceiling a little more difficult than someone who has pitched more at that level like Ober. It appears the Twins are encouraging Varland to throw more of the cutter this season, which Baseball Savant projects to be his most effective pitch. There still is a little more time for the St. Paul native to hammer out some flaws. He is only 25; two years younger than Ober.
Varland may have a higher ceiling than Ober. Varland’s fastball tops out at 96.2 MPH, league average but still faster than Ober’s. Also, Varland’s injury risks aren’t as concerning as Ober’s. Varland’s spin isn’t quite there, but let’s give more time for sample sizes to weigh that out. Especially considering his Stuff+ seems incredibly promising. Stuff+ isolates the physical characteristics of a pitch like release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate.
However, Ober can bring more to the table if we only focus on the value added this season. When healthy, Ober is another solid option in Minnesota’s rotation because of his previous production in the big leagues. An injured groin set Ober back last season, but at least it wasn’t an arm or shoulder issue. Ober is also able to use three effective pitches: his fastball, slider, and changeup Conversely, Varland is still leaning on his fastball and cutter to carry him multiple times through a batting order.
Ober’s velocity doesn’t have the same zip as Varland’s. However, Ober has done a better job generating swings and misses. Combining minor- and major-league innings, Ober’s 12 percent swinging strike rate beats Varland’s 9 percent clip. Ober also has a slight advantage with his overall strikeout percentage. It’s not just through location for Ober. He’s able to generate some above-league-average spin on his fastball, even though he can’t throw it with high velocity. Varland has the straight-up speed. But in today’s game, even a decent amount of spin can make things harder on hitters.
The Twins proved that they have the depth to make their starting rotation a playoff-caliber unit. Now, the two young arms added into the mix will have their own prolonged stretch to prove they belong among Minnesota’s top-five starters. If there was one pitcher with the upper hand initially, Ober has the ability to bring be more productive for the Twins throughout the season.
Ober needs to prove that he can sustain his production over a relatively full season of work. Varland still needs to prove he can be a legitimate big-league arm, given his small sample size in the majors. There is a subtle difference between the two that makes Ober the more likely starter to help out the Twins this season.
