After the Philadelphia Eagles blew the Green Bay Packers out in Week 12, the NFL world was pretty sure that Jordan Love was in line to take the reins for the final stretch of Green Bay’s 2022 season. Many wondered how Rodgers would feel about it, both having to sit and having led a team that completely face-planted following a trio of 13-win seasons to kick off Matt LaFleur’s tenure. Debates raged about whether Rodgers had played his final game in green and gold as he ostensibly approaches the end of his career and Love approaches the end of his rookie contract. Everyone seemed to agree that, as the game against the Philadelphia Eagles got pushed further out of reach and Rodgers headed to the locker room with an injury, the Packers were done.
On The Pat McAfee Show the following Tuesday, Rodgers expressed openness to sitting if and when the Packers were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. But he reasoned that “we’re not eliminated. I got good news from the scans yesterday, so I plan on playing this week.” Suffice it to say, while Rodgers may have announced his intention to play now, it wasn’t interpreted with a lot of optimism, especially given the team’s performance leading up to that point.
When it came to winning out, the game against the Miami Dolphins was the scary one. The home divisional games against the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions felt quite winnable compared to a showdown with Mike McDaniel’s prolific attack. The Bears are beatable at any venue, and it would’ve taken new lows to fall to the battered Los Angeles Rams. Now, not only have the Packers won their last four games and gotten the help they need to control their fate in Sunday’s Week 18 contest, but they’ve looked a lot more like the Packers of old.
Part of it is the rookie receivers growing as the season rolls on. Part of it is AJ Dillon stepping up to pound bruised defenses in frigid December. And part of it is also Joe Barry’s defense coming out of the bye and forcing turnovers. Perhaps the greatest thing Barry has done this season (low bar, I understand) is letting his $84 million cornerback follow Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson instead of allowing Jefferson to torch their basic zone scheme.
While the Packers were sweating the ups and downs of what has alternately been a tumultuous, underwhelming, yet somehow inspiring season, the Vikings stormed to an NFC North title. They have a 12-4 record and were competing for the second seed in the conference. When it comes to T-shirts and Twitter, they’re the kings of the North. They won the division, and they won it by a landslide. They will be seeded either third or fourth when the playoffs begin in a couple of weeks. Somehow, though, their odds to win the NFC Championship, according to Pinnacle sportsbook, are sixth in the conference, sitting behind (you guessed it) the Green Bay Packers. By implied probability, they are considered the ninth-most likely team to win the Super Bowl.
According to Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, “There’s never been anything like this…by Pythagorean wins, the Vikings are the luckiest team of all time.” The algorithms certainly hammer them over the one-possession games that have bent their way at a historic rate — 100% of them, actually, over an 11-game sample size — but having that clutch gene is essential to playoff success. They’re a good team, not to be written off. But when they strolled into Lambeau Field with a 12-3 record, the books said they would lose. And they didn’t just lose; they got pounded. Green Bay would love to see the Vikings again soon, not only because San Francisco is the other likely alternative.
By the night’s end, Kirk Cousins’ jersey was more green than purple after being under pressure all night, getting slammed to the turf, and throwing a trio of interceptions. Jaire Alexander locked down Jefferson, Keisean Nixon continued his astounding emergence, and the offense simply did their job. Bad losses to the Vikings, Lions, and way too many other mid- and lower-tier teams put Green Bay’s backs against the wall. But Sunday was the latest proof that if you give Aaron Rodgers a must-win game in this division, he will bring it home. Obviously, it’s incredibly presumptuous to draw such a conclusion ahead of this weekend’s rematch with the Lions, but Green Bay opened as -200 favorites. The last time Detroit won at Lambeau, DeShone Kizer was the Packers’ quarterback.
The Vikings were rewarded for their insane comebacks and runaway division title. If the Packers persevere, they’ll be rewarded with some dramatic edits of ESPN hosts saying they were finished, spliced with highlights from their flurry of wins. But they’ll have to slay the last of their three perennial punching bags to complete the road from a 1% to 100% chance to make the postseason. And, let’s be honest, despite their struggles and the fact that they have twice as many losses as Minnesota, the team they are right now isn’t just winning by a field goal. They’re imposing their will, asserting themselves as the team nobody wants to match up with in the playoffs. They’re looking a lot more like the team they’ve been and the team they were expected to be, which is, quite simply, the kings of the North.
