Green Bay Packers

Packers Must Hit Goff Early and Often On Sunday

Photo Credit: Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

One of the biggest factors in the Green Bay Packers’ seemingly miraculous resurrection in the back half of this season has been the defense’s ability to force turnovers. That includes back-to-back games with four takeaways and 13 total in the current four-game winning streak. While Green Bay’s Week 18 opponent, the Detroit Lions, hasn’t been as prolific at forcing turnovers in their own right, Detroit has protected the ball well. They have turned it over only once over the last five games. As with many NFL games, whichever team wins the turnover battle on Sunday will more than likely earn the seventh and final playoff berth in the NFC.

A week after a concussed Tua Tagovailoa threw three interceptions in a 26-20 win over the Miami Dolphins, Green Bay forced Kirk Cousins into four turnovers in a 41-17 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Darnell Savage, Adrian Amos, and Rudy Ford secured interceptions, and Kenny Clark used his big ol’ bear paw to smack the ball out of Cousins’ hand on a strip sack in the third quarter.

In Miami, the Packers picked off Tua three times in the fourth quarter, keeping the Dolphins off the scoreboard after halftime, which proved necessary in the 26-20 victory. Sunday’s win over Minnesota played out a little differently. Each turnover allowed the Packers to run up the score in front of a home crowd.

Week 18 presents a different challenge. This current version of Jared Goff is much more mature and understands how to use his weapons effectively while also minimizing risk in the process. Goff has thrown interceptions on 1.3% of his passes, a figure that ranks fourth in the league. It’s also a statistic that Aaron Rodgers has led the league on six different occasions. In those seasons, Rodgers’ stats ranged from an otherworldly 0.3% in 2014 to 1.3% in 2009.

The Los Angeles Rams cast Goff aside once Sean McVay and the organization keyed in on Matthew Stafford as the guy who would be able to get them over the hump. But the Lions haven’t fared too poorly in the trade. Goff, 28, still has several quality years left to play. He has been able to take off once he began to click with Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, one of the hottest coaching candidates of the upcoming offseason.

Goff’s weapons aren’t incredibly deep, but Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s ascension into the upper echelon of wide receivers maximizes his potential. The Lions traded away his next-best option in tight end T.J. Hockenson. However, the likes of Kalif Raymond, D.J. Chark, and Josh Reynolds have rounded out the position group, in addition to talented backs in Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. There’s a reason that Detroit started 1-6 and was in a position to trade a player like Hockenson mid-season. But there’s also a very real reason why the Lions are on the brink of the playoffs.

So what can Green Bay do to win the turnover battle? Well, for starters, don’t commit any. The Packers didn’t have any turnovers against Minnesota on Sunday, and they have just three total over the last four games, with a plus-10 advantage. And the key for the Packers’ defense has been to get to the quarterback.

The Packers are by no means the best team at it, ranking both 24th in sacks and quarterback hits through 16 games, but the defense has been able to ratchet it up lately. Through the first 12 games, Green Bay averaged just 4.9 hits on the quarterback per game. The Packers hit Kirk Cousins eight times last week. Against the Rams, they were able to get to Baker Mayfield on nine occasions. Good things generally happen when you get pressure on the QB, ranging from rushed and inaccurate throws to strip sacks. Green Bay will most certainly need to keep this trend moving against Detroit.

However, the Lions present a stout offensive line that has done an excellent job of protecting Goff. When they do it particularly well, it usually translates to wins. Since they started 1-6, they played nine games and allowed 40 total hits on Goff. In Detroit’s seven wins, they’ve allowed fewer than 3.5 hits on their quarterback. In those two losses, the Buffalo Bills got to Goff nine times, while the Carolina Panthers had seven quarterback hits.

So many NFL games are won in the trenches, and Sunday night at Lambeau Field likely won’t be any different. When the Packers are playing well, their defensive front has been able to get to the quarterback. Detroit’s offensive line will have something to say about that. Whichever side wins that battle will likely advance to play another day in the NFC playoffs.

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Photo Credit: Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

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