The Green Bay Packers have made considerable investments in the running back position over the last three years — much more than any analytical roster-building approach would indicate they should. As a result, Aaron Jones andA.J. Dillon became one of the best running back duos in the NFL as two of the most efficient runners in the league. However, the position is a sneaky need for the Packers moving forward.
Last season, the depth was already a concern. For most of the year, Patrick Taylor was the third option, but he was delegated to special teams and had 33 offensive snaps all season. That’s 3% of the total snaps for the offense. Kylin Hill, a former seventh-round pick, ended up playing only one offensive snap in 2022 before being waived – that’s it. Undrafted rookie Tyler Goodson spent all season on the practice squad and signed a futures deal but hasn’t played yet.
Theoretically, this approach is concerning in case of injuries or because the two starters might be overloaded. Jones played 57.59% of the offensive snaps, and Dillon played 49.09%. But the problem is even bigger for 2023 and beyond because Jones and Dillon’s futures in Green Bay are uncertain.
Aaron Jones
- Stats: 213 rushes, 1,121 yards, 2 TDs, 5.3 YPA; 59 receptions, 395 yards, 5 TDs
- PFF grade: 86.1
Jones is by far the best running back for the Packers, and he has been that since his rookie year in 2017. However, he really started to shine as a versatile player since Matt LaFleur became the head coach in 2019. Jones is also the best offensive weapon for the Packers, at least until Christian Watson establishes himself as a WR1.
It could be an easy decision to keep him and maybe even extend him, but his contract is a hard pill to swallow. This year, Jones’ projected cap hit is $20.02 million. The Packers could (and probably will) restructure it, lowering his hit to as low as $8.5 million. The problem is that it would make the last year of his current deal, in 2024, and his dead money in 2025 an enormous cap burden.
The Packers will still probably find a way to keep Jones for at least one year, though. He would be an important weapon for either Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love, and there’s no replacement plan in place. Maybe the Packers will extend Jones a year from now and spread the cap for future years, counting on a cap increase and more future flexibility when Green Bay won’t have to pay Rodgers anymore. The problem with this approach is that Jones is 28, and running backs don’t tend to play much longer than that.
A.J. Dillon
- Stats: 186 rushes, 770 yards, 7 TDs, 4.1 YPA; 28 receptions, 206 yards
- PFF grade: 81.4
The Packers took Dillon in the second of the 2020 draft, and general manager Brian Gutekunst had several expectations in mind. The first one was to have flexibility because Jones and Jamaal Williams became free agents one year later. In his second year, Dillon could have the chance to be a full-time starter. But while Green Bay let Williams go, and he signed with the Detroit Lions, Jones re-signed with the Packers. As a result, Dillon became a change-of-pace runner.
After a prolific season in 2021, Dillon started slow in 2022. He still finished the year better, but he had 1.2 yards per carry less than Jones, which helps to show he’s not as electric and explosive.
The Packers could still be okay with Dillon as a starter if Jones is traded or cut as a cap casualty. The problem here is that Dillon’s contract situation isn’t certain either. Green Bay drafted him in 2020, so he’s going to the fourth and final year of his rookie deal. The Packers will keep him in 2023 at an affordable price, but there’s no guarantee they will find a decent number to re-sign the running back to a long-term deal.
Alternatives
The Packers could go in different paths to try and find a third running back for 2023 — and maybe a full-time starter as soon as 2024. The draft generally is the option with the highest upside, mainly because the player would sign a cheap rookie contract for four seasons. This year’s class includes names like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Zach Evans, Zach Charbonnet, Tank Bigsby, or Mohamed Ibrahim.
If the Packers want to go a clearer route and sign a free agent, it’s hard to imagine a significant investment in big-name free agents like Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, or Kareem Hunt. However, there are mid-level options: Rashaad Penny, Jamaal Williams, Raheem Mostert, D’Onta Foreman, Jerick McKinnon, and Samaje Perine. The list of free-agent running backs is big, which shows that the talent level at the position is pretty flat. Green Bay could have the option to wait and still find an inexpensive veteran option.
Meanwhile, Patrick Taylor and Tyler Goodson are still on the roster. Developing them, especially Goodson, who’s still a young piece, is a decent solution for depth if the plan includes keeping Jones and/or Dillon.
