We don’t know. We think we know, but we don’t.
Maybe the Green Bay Packers never had any intention of putting Jordan Love on the field before Week 5, and they’ve been messing with us while the young QB heals and recovers. Then again, we may get word 90 minutes before kickoff that he’s active and will return under center for Border Battle 128. Who (outside of 1265 Lombardi Avenue) knows?
That’s the mystery surrounding this suddenly very intriguing matchup that will set the early tone in a division that was thought to have two playoff contenders but just might end up with three. I think it’s as simple as this: If Love starts, the Packers win. If it’s Willis, the Vikings get the W. Not revolutionary, I know, but it’s all I got.
Green Bay has this trend working in its favor: Teams that start the season 3-0 like the Vikings and are underdogs in Week 4 are just 2-9 straight up in the last 10 years. The Pack is favored by 2.5.
Let’s look at the state of the two teams. The Vikings are mostly healthy, they’ve only ruled out LB Ivan Pace. Sam Darnold is fine, Jordan Addison is back, and Aaron Jones can’t wait to do a Lambeau Leap. Their last two wins, both at home, came against Super Bowl contenders who are off to slow starts and are playing nothing like their preseason projections. The defense is playing lights out, and they have yet to trail in a game. Darnold will be facing his first true road test of the season.
Despite 11 guys showing up on the injury report again, the Packers are mostly healthy beyond Love. The biggest question is Jaire Alexander, the eternal enigma. He missed practice on Friday with a groin injury and is now questionable, potentially putting his premier matchup with Justin Jefferson on ice. With Carrington Valentine doubtful, the cornerback room suddenly looks barren and potentially outmatched by Minnesota’s top two receivers.
The biggest question if Love returns is whether he’ll be ready to play at the speed he’ll need to in order to keep Brian Flores’ defense off balance. In a perfect world, Love would have had a few games to get in rhythm before dealing with the blitzes and subterfuge he handled so seamlessly against the Purple late last season.
I know this: The only way Love plays is if 1) the medical team believes there’s no chance of re-injuring the knee and 2) the coaching staff believes he can handle anything they throw at him.
The Packers are an elite pass-blocking team, and they know they have a distinct advantage with their WRs against Minnesota’s corners if Love has time and his mobility. They need to turn Love loose if he’s out there, and whether it’s Love or Willis, Green Bay needs to continue to move the ball effectively on the ground so Flores can’t dictate the pace of the game.
I’m just as curious to watch the Pack’s defense deal with the Vikings, who you know would like nothing more than to feed Aaron Jones early and often and see if he can carve up his former team. That’s the Pack’s first challenge: Put Darnold into obvious passing situations and see how he deals with the noise, pressure, and Jeff Hafley’s confusing scheme. The Pack should have an advantage up the middle, with Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt drooling over what they might do against Garrett Bradbury and Ed Ingram.
This is a game where the Pack needs to clean up the penalties and be more efficient in the red zone. This is a game where they need to get off to a quick start, rattle Darnold, and get the crowd involved. This is a game where they may need to lean on the defense. This is a game where the Packers need to remind the Vikings that playing on the road at Lambeau is a whole lot different than playing in the Purple Palace.
The last five meetings have not been close, won by double digits (3-2 Pack). That could happen again on Sunday. If Love plays.
With Love:
Packers 26
Vikings 16
With Willis:
Vikings 19
Packers 16
