Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/09

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings -1.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBCS-CA

I’m looking at two situations impacting this game, and both favor Sacramento pretty significantly. The Kings are in a serious bounce-back situation here after getting run out at home by the lowly Pistons on Wednesday night. That was a tough situational spot in its own right, but the Kings tend to bounce back well this season at 12-8 ATS following a loss.

Denver comes in off a gritty win in LA last night, and this back-to-back spot with travel should hurt them. The Nuggets are just 1-5 ATS with a rest disadvantage this season, worst in the league. Compare that to the Kings who are 10-4-1 ATS when they have the rest advantage and can force an up-tempo game on a tired opponent. Denver also has the fourth-worst road ATS record and ATS plus/minus this season, so I’m backing Sacramento on this short number to get right.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Nikola Jokic Over 49.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Since Domantas Sabonis joined the Kings, he’s faced off against Jokic four times. The Joker has averaged 29.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 10.0 assists in those meetings, so let’s also toss half a unit on him to record a triple-double at +150 tonight. In the past ten games Jokic is averaging 51.6 on this prop, so in a game that should be more up-tempo I’ll look for his stats to get padded tonight.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Dayton/VCU First Half Under 63.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN2

I don’t disagree very often with KenPom, but in my opinion he has this Dayton offense rated far too high. I’ve just seen the Flyers go through so many dry spells that I’m skeptical of their ability to start games quickly, especially in a matchup like this. Dayton is extremely reliant on three-point shooting, and while they shoot it from deep at an elite level, their percentage really drops off in road games.

It’s bound to take a big step down tonight against a VCU team that’s elite defensively. The Rams own the country’s 5th-best effective field goal percentage defense, and the 10th-best three-point percentage defense. That’s critical to hampering efficiency in a game that will be slow-paced between the Flyers who are 347th in adjusted tempo, and the Rams who are 296th nationally. These teams are a combined 13-7 under this total in first halves of their A10 games, so look for another tonight.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 2021-1823 ATS (+95.6 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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