Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 02/11

Locks

NFL (1 Unit) Kansas City Chiefs 1st Half ML vs San Francisco 49ers (+105; Odds via Fanduel): 5:30 PM CT on CBS

I’m declining to take a full-game side for this column, which I know is lame. But with the Drake Curse hitting the Chiefs yesterday and the whole world already on them, I’m concentrating on value I see elsewhere. That starts with the Chiefs getting off to another strong start and the 49ers having another rough start, both of which we’ve seen as a theme in these playoffs. KC is 12-6-2 to the first half moneyline this season, and they’re going to need to get off to another strong start tonight, so I’ll take the small plus-return here.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Chiefs/49ers 1st Half Over 23.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

The 49ers and 4th and the Chiefs are 6th in first half scoring this season, averaging 14.8 and 14.5 PPG, respectively. While the 49ers have struggled to score early in both playoff games, I’m expecting the extra week to help Kyle Shanahan, one of the best drive scripters in football, get that turned around. And with another of the best drive scripters of all time in Andy Reid on the other side, look for a hot start out of both offenses.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Chiefs/49ers 2nd Half Under 23.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

If you can bet second halves before the game starts, this is the bet to make. Otherwise, look for a similar number to this that’s available during halftime. Either way, I can’t stop now with this Chiefs trend of second halves going 18-2 to the under, especially in a game that I see as tight down the stretch and being played close to the vest.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit): Chiefs/49ers 4th Quarter Under 13.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)

What’s even better than the trend of Chiefs games going 18-2 to the second half under? That’d be Chiefs games going 19-1 to the fourth quarter under. So again, not stopping now, especially with the 49ers leading the NFL in fourth quarter scoring defense.

 

Super Bowl Game Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – 49ers Score on First Possession (+135)

0.5 Unit – Chiefs Score on First Possession (+135)

0.5 Unit – Patrick Mahomes MVP (+130)

0.25 Unit – Christian McCaffrey MVP (+460)

0.25 Unit – Travis Kelce MVP (+1200)

0.25 Unit – Gatorade Color Orange (+275)

0.25 Unit – Gatorade Color Purple (+450)

 

Super Bowl Player Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

0.5 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Completions (-110)

1 Unit – Isaih Pacheco Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-110)

0.5 Unit – Isaih Pacheco Anytime TD (-120)

0.5 Unit – Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions (+115)

1 Unit – Christian McCaffrey Over 128.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Christian McCaffrey over 1.5 TD’s (+200)

1 Unit – Jauan Jennings Over 1.5 Receptions (-110)

1 Unit – Jauan Jennings Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jauan Jennings 25+ Receiving Yards (+200)

0.5 Unit – Brandon Aiyuk Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit – Kyle Juszczyk Over 4.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Elijah Mitchell Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Deebo Samuel Anytime TD (+140)

0.5 Unit – George Kittle Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)

0.25 Unit – George Kittle Anytime TD (+175)

0.5 Unit – Nick Bosa Over 0.5 Sacks (-110)

0.5 Unit – Chris Jones Over 0.5 Sacks (+130)

0.25 Unit – Justin Reid Interception (+800)

0.75 Unit – Fred Warner Over 8.5 Tackles (-110)

0.75 Unit – Dre Greenlaw Over 8.5 Tackles (-110)

0.5 Unit – Jake Moody Over 7.5 Kicking Points (+100)

0.5 Unit – Harrison Butker Over 7.5 Kicking Points (+105)

 

Degenerates

Super Bowl Coin Toss: Heads (+100; Odds via DraftKings)

If you’re a true degenerate, this is for you. Only do this if you have access to DraftKings and their promo of no juice on either side of the coin toss though. Tails leads 30-27 in Super Bowl history, including last year, so if you’re a degenerate gambler you know that heads is due (PSA: that’s not how math works, it’s how the gambler’s fallacy works, but this is the degenerates section of Super Bowl betting, so what are you, my sponsor?).

 

 

Tiny Nick is 2026-1827 ATS (+95.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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