Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 03/03

Locks

NBA (0.5 Unit) Indiana Pacers/San Antonio Spurs Over 244.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Bally Sports IN

Check out Tyrese Haliburton’s stat line from Friday night in New Orleans. He’s too good to have that kind of performance again, and it should fuel the Pacers to a bounce back as a team. It’s easy to bounce back against San Antonio, with the Spurs owning one of the league’s worst defensive ratings.

The Spurs also play at the league’s 3rd-fastest pace, one spot behind Indiana, so these teams should get up and down the floor all night. With the NBA’s highest-scoring offense on the floor the over is always in play, and the Spurs are actually much better offensively at home, so look for this one to eclipse the high total.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) UM Kansas City Team Total Over 70.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 2:00 PM CT on Summit League Network

It’s strange to me that Oral Roberts is favored in this game after dropping six straight games. But that serves to hold down UMKC’s team total, which is also surprising me for where it’s posted. Oral Roberts is having a lot of trouble defending, allowing 77.8 PPG in Summit League play.

That’s caused their conference opponents to go 13-2 over this team total, and another should be coming here. A big key is going to be Kansas City’s reliance on the three, as they take the 27th-most from deep in road games. They’ll be up against the country’s 307th three-point percentage defense, and I think the Kangaroos capitalize with plenty of points today.

 

NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Rutgers @ Nebraska -4 First Half (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 5:30 PM CT on BTN

I’m expecting a big bounce back out of Nebraska in this spot after losing at Ohio State on Thursday. The Huskers have been outstanding at home, and this final home game of the season should be a highly hyped spot. They have a great record in first halves, covering this margin in 7 of 9 conference games, and posting a plus-7.2 average margin on the season.

Conversely, Rutgers has really struggled early in games away from home, posting a minus-5.8 average margin this year. In Big10  road games, the Scarlet Knights have never led at the half, trailing by an average of 8.5 points. The just had their offensive game of the year in hanging 82 points on Michigan on 52% shooting. The country’s 8th-worst effective field goal team, up against a Nebraska defense that’s been excellent at home, will experience regression and should fall behind significantly by halftime.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 2098-1893 ATS (+103.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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