Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/02

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) LA Lakers/Toronto Raptors Over 231 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on TSN

This total is rising quickly, and with good reason. The Raptors have been atrocious down the stretch, playing zero defense and allowing massive numbers to just about everyone. Toronto has dropped to 25th in defensive efficiency both overall and at home, so the league’s 3rd-best shooting team should put up plenty of points. But the Lakers have had their own defensive issues away from LA this season, part of why they’re 22-14 to the over in road games. With LA playing up-tempo and Toronto playing out the string, I expect plenty of scoring to get over this total.

 

NBA (1 Unit) Donovan Mitchell Over 22.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OH

Donovan Mitchell hasn’t been scoring much in the minimal games he played during an injury-plagued March, so that’s likely holding this number down. But he should erupt tonight in his return to Utah against a truly awful defense. The Jazz are 29th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency, so a motivated Mitchell can shred them if he wants to. He definitely wanted to last year when he came back to Salt Lake City, dropping 46 points. The Cavs are also looking to bounce back from getting destroyed in Denver on Sunday, so look for a big offensive night from the team as a whole and especially Spida.

 

NIT Tournament (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+145; Odds via DraftKings)

Indiana State -170 vs Utah: 6:00 PM CT on ESPN

The NIT moving to Hinkle Fieldhouse essentially makes this a home game for Indiana State, and I think they capitalize. The Sycamores have been on a mission in this tournament and I don’t blame them, so I’d expect another big effort tonight in front of a friendly crowd. It gets tougher now against a quality Utah team that can limit their pace and control things inside. But the Utes have struggled away from home all season, with just one Pac12 road win and usually forgetting their offense at home. With the best effective field goal rate in the country, I’ll trust Indiana State to score well enough to get this win.

Seton Hall -180 vs Georgia: 8:30 PM CT on ESPN

This Pirates team has also looked extremely motivated in the NIT, and that should help carry them here. Seton Hall is a very tough, hard-working team that should out-hustle a Georgia squad that’s extremely lucky to be here. Let’s not forget that Hall is one of three teams to knock off UConn this season, and the way they won that game will help them here. Georgia is going to try to use their size advantage and volume three-point shooting, but the Pirates have seen plenty of that in the Big East this season. I don’t think the Bulldogs shoot it well enough to make that work, and a more physical Hall squad moves on in this one.

 

MLB (0.5 Unit) Texas Rangers Moneyline @ Tampa Bay Rays (+130; Odds via Caesars): 5:50 PM CT on Bally Sports SW

Zach Eflin getting rocked by the Blue Jays on opening day was a bit of a surprise, but if he doesn’t get things fixed quickly it’ll happen again here. This Rangers offense is maybe even more potent than the version we saw win the World Series, even with Josh Jung going down last night. They certainly know how to hit Eflin, as they have a composite .424 average and 1.321 OPS against the Rays righty in his career. It’s tough to trust Andrew Heaney, but if this game turns into a slugfest, I want to be backing the powerful Texas lineup.

Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Rangers/Rays Over 8.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Totals in Tampa Bay are often pretty low, but the Rays tend to get into higher-scoring games early in the season. They’ve started out 4-1 over this total already, with 9.8 runs on average in this opening homestand. I mentioned above why I think the Rangers are set to score plenty of runs here, as well as not having a ton of faith in Andrew Heaney, so look for these strong offenses to get over this fairly low total.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 2181-1974 ATS (+96.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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