Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/03

Locks

NBA (0.75 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Minnesota Timberwolves Over 215.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

The Wolves are one of the worst teams to bet overs when they’re at home, but this situation is just different. They’re up against the league’s best over team in road games, as Toronto is 22-13-1 to the over with the highest plus/minus when they go south of the border. The Raptors have no interest in defense right now as they tank down the stretch, and are 28th in defensive efficiency on the road.

This is also a back-to-back for both teams, straining that poor Toronto defense and putting the Wolves in a spot where they crush overs. Minnesota is 9-2 to the over on no rest, the best record in the NBA, and that should get extended tonight. The Wolves desperately need to break out of a shooting slump, and this might be the perfect opponent to do it. The total here reflects the under record at Target Center, but the other factors are enough to push this game over the low number.

 

NBA (1 Unit) LA Lakers/Washington Wizards First Half Over 119 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on SportsNet LA

This first half total is skewed pretty heavily as books have adjusted to how both of these teams play. The Lakers actually average 3 more points in first halves than in second halves this season, along with allowing 3.9 more points before halftime than after. For Washington it’s considerably more balanced overall, but the Wizards notoriously allow the most first half points in the league at home.

Both of these teams are also on no rest, and the Lakers are second to Minnesota for over record when playing on no rest. The Wizards are also the fastest-paced team in the league, so pairing them with an LA team that’s 4th in tempo and can really shoot should see them give up plenty of early scoring again. The meeting in LA earlier this season saw 139 points at halftime, so given the rest situation and Washington being at home, this first half total is much too low.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 2181-1974 ATS (+97.8 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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