Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 04/10

Locks

NBA (1 Unit) Toronto Raptors/Brooklyn Nets Over 222 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on YES

I wish this number hadn’t taken so much steam to the over, but that shows what kind of game the smart money is expecting here. Last night’s Raptors game was a rocking chair over and I’m going right back to that well, this time with them in a much more favorable split for overs. Toronto is 23-14-1 to the over in road games, with the league’s highest plus/minus to the total.

The Raptors play no defense away from home, allowing 121.5 PPG with the 3rd-worst defensive efficiency. While Brooklyn is no offensive juggernaut, they should be able to take advantage of such a weak defense, especially since they’ve had a few days to stew over being held to 77 points against Sacramento. This has not been a high-scoring series on the season, but with both teams calling 1-2-3-Cancun in the huddle, expect a defense-optional game tonight.

 

Degenerates

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 103.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN

Sometimes I have trouble maintaining objectivity with my favorite teams, and I’m obviously rooting for the Wolves to essentially lock up the one seed with a win here, but that doesn’t mean this number isn’t too low. I actually think that Denver is laying too many points for a game with these stakes, but I’ll focus on the team total angle.

The Wolves have gone over this in all three previous meetings, averaging 111.0 PPG against the Nuggets this season while dealing with all kinds of absences in those games. Minnesota has also gone over this particular team total in 17 of their past 20 games, and are averaging 112.6 the past 10 games. This could definitely turn into a tightly-guarded game with so much on the line, but I’m trusting past success to get the Wolves over this low number.

 

PGA – The Masters Thu-Sun on ESPN/CBS (Odds via DraftKings)

The past 12 Masters winners have come into the tournament gaining at least 18 total strokes tee-to-green in the four events they played coming into Augusta. That’s pretty solid data and history, so here are those players that I think have a legitimate shot and will be placing bets on for this week.

Scottie Scheffler (+450)

Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)

Joaquin Niemann (+2800)

Jon Rahm (+1100)

Xander Schauffele (+1400)

Shane Lowry (+6000)

Corey Conners (+6000)

Si Woo Kim (+5500)

Rory McIlroy (+1100)

Cameron Young (+5000)

Ludvig Aberg (+3000)

Bryson DeChambeau (+3500)

 

 

Tiny Nick is 2194-1989 ATS (+98.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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