Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Brooklyn Nets @ NY Knicks -10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on MSG
I’m sure the Knicks would like to hold onto the #3 seed and not drop a spot, allowing them to avoid Boston as long as possible in the playoffs. For that they’ll need this game, and I don’t think it will be much of a challenge. The Knicks are just playing too well, and this banged-up Nets team is surely counting the hours until Monday. Brooklyn is also the league’s worst road ATS team at 13-25, so they don’t typically put up much of fight away from home. Not many teams have the answer for Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby right now, certainly not the Nets, and I think the Knicks make this look easy.
NBA (0.75 Unit) LA Lakers/Memphis Grizzlies 1st Quarter Over 57.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on NBA TV
On a day with plenty of meaningless basketball, this game does mean something for LA as they try to avoid the #9 or #10 seed for next week. They should take care of business against the G-League roster for Memphis, and I expect them to run it up early. I think that creates plenty of early scoring, and not just from the Lakers.
They just don’t play very good defense on the road, and the result is allowing the second-most points in first quarters on the road at 32.0 per game. And these teams are no stranger to high-flying opening quarters, putting up 63, 67, and 73 in the first quarters of their meetings this season, so look for another tonight.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs +13 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports SW
Be sure to confirm the status of Victor Wembanyama for tonight, as this is far too big a number if he’s playing. Wemby is not listed on the injury report so I’d expect him to be a go, which makes the Spurs extremely competitive. They’ve been an ATS wagon with him down the stretch of the season, including last week in Denver when he almost beat the Nuggets himself. Denver has not beaten San Antonio by this margin all season and this number represents the tax for them looking to wrap up the top seed, so don’t pay it, take it.
NBA (1 Unit) Utah Jazz @ LA Clippers -9 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on Bally Sports SC
The Clippers have plenty of motivation in this game as they can lock up home court for the first round of the playoffs with a win. That won’t be tough against a pretty bad Jazz squad, and I expect LA to step on them early. That’s what they did last week when the Jazz came to LA for a game with essentially the same roster composition, taking a 33-point lead into halftime.
The Jazz have not been good away from home in general this season, owning the worst average first half margin in road games. They’re also off a high-possessions game last night and don’t do well on no rest, while the Clippers have been excellent this season with a rest advantage. The Clips have been one of the best first half teams in the league this season, so look for them to stomp on a bad and tired opponent early tonight.
Degenerates
NBA Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 120.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North
It seems like Timberwolves team total never fails, although this is a vastly different number to contend with. However, my sense is that the Wolves run this one up against a bad defensive team in Atlanta who has nothing to play for. Minnesota is still jockeying for playoff seeding and should put in a solid effort, plus this is a revenge game from the first week of the season. With Karl-Anthony Towns expected to return tonight the offense gets a boost and they have some frustrations to take out from the loss in Denver, so the Wolves can name their score tonight if they want to.
Tiny Nick is 2194-1990 ATS (+98.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
