Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 06/19

Locks

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Atlanta Dream @ Minnesota Lynx -9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Bally Sports North

If I see the Lynx lined as single-digit favorites, in a home game, I’m jumping in. If this team is winning, they’re more than likely doing it by double digits, which has been the case in 9 of their 11 wins so far. That includes beating this Atlanta team on the road by 13 points, and the Dream have fallen off since then.

Minnesota’s frontcourt depth will be tested without Bridget Carleton tonight, but the Dream will also be missing their top reserve Aerial Powers, so that’s a wash in my book. Teams have kept things interesting against the Lynx for parts of recent games, but eventually the superior shooting and defense they have wins out, and that will help them roll tonight.

 

WNBA (0.5 Unit) Seattle Storm Team Total Over 82.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on NBA TV

This Seattle team has all the offensive talent in the world, it’s just that they sometimes go on inexplicable droughts. They can’t afford to do that tonight with the Aces in revenge mode, but I don’t see Las Vegas being able to stop them. This Aces team has completely fallen apart defensively, allowing the 3rd-most points in the league and seeing their past 4 opponents hit 90-plus points. Whether this is another weird loss for the Aces or a game where they make a statement, the Storm will either be pushed or pulled up and over this total.

 

MLB (0.25 Unit Each) Joe Ryan Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120) & Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+135; Odds via DraftKings): 6:40 PM CT on Bally Sports North

This is another Joe Ryan Day where the Twins need him to eat innings after the bullpen’s top arms had to log 5 innings of work last night. That was the case last week and Ryan delivered with 7 full, which he’s gone in 5 of his past 7 starts now. So I think he gets that call again tonight and can deliver against a light-hitting Rays team that’s near the bottom of the league against righties. They’re also a strikeout-prone team against righthanded pitching, and Ryan has great numbers against the Rays hitters he’s seen. The innings and strikeouts are obviously correlated, but getting just one of these at the plus-juice prices returns a profit.

 

MLB (0.5 Unit) Garrett Crochet Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 7:10 PM CT on SCHN

There’s a good reason why Crochet has such a low strikeout prop here despite the run he’s on. The Astros are the least strikeout-prone team in the league against lefthanded pitching, but they haven’t seen this lefty yet. Crochet is on an absolute tear, with double-digit strikeouts in 3 of his past 4 starts overall. And at home his K’s per inning jumps to over 1.5, and is 7-1 over this total in his home starts. He’ll have to step his game up against this Astros lineup, but the trends and plus-juice return are making me a believer.

 

MLB (0.5 Unit) LA Dodgers/Colorado Rockies Over 10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:40 PM CT on SportsNet LA

This total is being held down by the weather report that says Coors Field won’t be quite the same tonight from a hitting conditions standpoint. But it hasn’t been the elements that have caused the two games in this series to fly over with 14 and 20 runs, it’s been the putrid Rockies bullpen. That unit has allowed the most runs and highest batting average in the league this season, and it’s not close. P

lus they’re overworked now, so this elite Dodgers offense will be able to tee off on the lesser arms tonight. But don’t overlook the starters for tonight’s game, as they’re likely to allow plenty of scoring themselves. Bobby Miller has had a rough return from injury for LA and hasn’t been great on the road. But the big key is Ryan Feltner who gets crushed at Coors for a 6.89 ERA and .331 opponent on-base average. I don’t think it matters one bit how the wind is blowing tonight, the pitching in this game could deliver an over just about anywhere.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 2335-2155 ATS (+89.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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