Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks: 07/09

Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Cleveland Guardians -1.5 @ Detroit Tigers (+115; Odds via Caesars): 5:40 PM CT on Bally Sports Detroit

The Guardians haven’t had much success against the Tigers this season, surprisingly going just 2-2 with a couple of 1-run wins. I think if that’s going to change, it will happen today against the incredible struggles of Kenta Maeda. The Tigers are just 5-10 when Maeda starts this season, and 9 of those losses have come by multiple runs.

And Maeda has bad numbers against Cleveland, as their lineup has a cumulative .304 average and .980 OPS against him. Detroit can’t hit, it’s just that simple, and I don’t think they get much if anything against Ben Lively and an elite bullpen today. That should make it easy for the Guardians to build a solid lead and pull away for a run line cover tonight.

 

MLB (1 Unit) Oakland A’s/Boston Red Sox Over 10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on NESN

Two bad starting pitchers, in the worst version of their home/road splits, are pitching in a small ballpark with perfect weather conditions for scoring. With Oakland starter Joey Estes, you get a pitcher with a wild discrepancy in his home/road splits, posting a 7.00 ERA on the road compared to 1.91 at home. Taking those road woes into a small ballpark against a hot offense should spell trouble for him and the A’s tonight.

But Brayan Bello has his own issues for Boston, with his ERA at Fenway a hefty 6.21, plus a high WHIP and opponent on-base average. Bello has also seen Oakland this season and was tagged for 4 runs on the road, so they know how to hit him. But maybe the biggest key for me is the weather, with warm temperatures, high humidity, and a strong wind blowing out to center today. Hot, windy overs are a solid system in baseball, so I’m taking advantage of these bad pitchers in a solid situation.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Tiny Nick is 2371-2183 ATS (+90.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks. 

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