I was always taught that you’re never a victim of your own success. It’s a good lesson to learn, especially in the world of sports, that people’s rising expectations of you are an opportunity rather than a punishment. That being said, Sam Darnold may have been victimized a tad by the monumental shift in expectations this season, coupled with the large number of detractors in the media who were eager to confirm their preseason opinion of who they believed Darnold to be.
We all watched in shock and awe at the brand of football we saw emerge out of Darnold to start this season. There were unironic discussions of his MVP odds. Yes, the same guy who had been one of the biggest draft busts in the tortured history of a tortured New York Jets franchise. But when he came out the first four weeks of the season playing like a top-three quarterback in football, people needed to recalibrate their expectations.
Then came the midseason slump. Beginning with a sloppy game against the Jets in London, a two-game skid against the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams, and then cratering in Jacksonville; it felt like Darnold had regressed back to the bust we’d all anticipated. Just sim the season and start over with J.J. McCarthy in 2025.
Over the past few weeks, Darnold has positively regressed much closer to the bar we’d set for him after the hot start. The Darnold bounceback hit its crescendo on the road last week against the Chicago Bears, where Darnold was lights out. The broadcast and national media may have been frothing over Caleb Williams, but Darnold was the best former USC quarterback in that game. That should come as no surprise; we’ve seen how high Darnold’s ceiling can be at various points this season.
Now he needs to prove he’s got staying power.
Darnold and the Vikings return home to face the Arizona Cardinals this weekend with all their highest aspirations still on the table. They’re keeping pace in a hyper-competitive NFC North and have a chance to continue to stack wins against foes with middling records over the next few weeks. But similar to Minnesota’s last showdown against the NFC West, they’ll likely be tested by a spunky Arizona team.
Arizona has been weird all season. They’ve had dominant victories against the Rams, Bears, and Jets, as well as tough victories against the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins. That’s a mixed bag of middling-to-solid opposition, depending on the week. But things have gone sideways against every legitimately great team they’ve faced this year. They have narrow losses to the Buffalo Bills and Lions, and the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers blew them out. The Cardinals also lost a tough game to the Seattle Seahawks. Most teams that pass the eye test have been clear-cut above this Arizona squad.
The Cardinals present a legitimate challenge, particularly on defense. They’re coming off a five-sack performance against Seattle, four of which came on third down, where their defensive front stymied the Seahawks for most of the afternoon.
They held Kenneth Walker to under 50 yards rushing and had a whopping eight tackles for loss. They’ve held opponents under 17 points for three consecutive weeks and are also 11th in scoring defense on the season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s touchdown this past Sunday was the first TD the defense has allowed since the fourth quarter of their Week 8 tilt against Miami. This Cardinals defense has a lot of athleticism, and when they put the pieces together, it’s formidable.
Jonathan Gannon’s unit has made an impact, particularly through its excellent red-zone defense (ranked eighth in the NFL), which could prove daunting for this Vikings offense. We’ve seen Darnold and Co. be elite “between the 20s” all season but rather pedestrian in the red zone.
The key to Minnesota’s success in this game likely comes down to Darnold’s ability to replicate some of what we saw Geno Smith do to them last week. For all the other vaunted numbers, this Cardinals defense is 31st in the league on third down, and it’s because of games like Smith was able to have Sunday. Extending the play, scrambling out of the pocket, and connecting on downfield passes were the difference in Seattle’s ability to squeeze out Arizona. It’s something Darnold has shown the ability to do this season, even if it’s occasionally gotten him into trouble.
Sam Darnold can turn this modest bounceback into a legitimate hot streak with another good game against the Cardinals. Arizona’s defense will really test the Vikings up front, and a clean game in the red zone would relieve many fans’ concerns heading into the home stretch of the regular season. Darnold’s making good decisions, capitalizing on opportunities, and extending plays with his legs could be the difference this Sunday.
