Last December, the Minnesota Vikings were engaged in a defensive battle with the Las Vegas Raiders. Locked in a tight NFC playoff race, the Vikings needed a spark to keep their hopes alive. Then, in the distance, a figure emerged.
It was a man riding a white horse, speeding through the Mojave Desert. The opening chords to Journey’s “Separate Ways” blared through the speakers at Allegiant Stadium.
Ok, Nick…
Nick Mullens charged in from the distance, raising an enormous sword to the sky, ready to take his throne at quarterback.
We don’t need anything too risky here…
A lightning bolt from the heavens struck Mullens, who screamed, “I HAVE THE POWER!” like He-Man approaching Castle Grayskull. As Mullens was ready to take the field, he snapped out of his daydream and finally heard Kevin O’Connell‘s words.
Nick, you’re going in. Don’t put us in a bad spot.
Mullens went on to win that game for the Vikings, but his tendency to play hero ball proved to be their downfall. The game against the Raiders would be Minnesota’s final win of the season; the defense would wear down after constantly being on the field to cover for Mullens’ turnovers.
One year later, Sam Darnold appears to be in the same situation. Over the past two weeks, the Vikings have shown the qualities of a team that could compete in a wide-open NFC playoff race. But a slew of turnovers could put pressure on a team that doesn’t need Darnold to be the hero to carry them there.
For that to happen, Darnold must consider his defense for the rest of the season.
This isn’t a case of tagging Darnold with the dreaded “game manager” label. While some believe that coaches want their quarterback to be the extension of a head coach, O’Connell wants his quarterback to attack downfield and find big plays.
It seems obvious for a team with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. However, it could be too inviting for the wrong type of quarterback.
Mullens has never had qualms about trying to make a big play, which showed in his performance taking over for Josh Dobbs in the final five games of last season. Mullens hunted for plays downfield, logging a 5.2 big-time throw percentage, which Pro Football Focus defines as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window. However, he also had a 7% turnover-worthy play rate, which PFF defines as a pass with a high percentage chance of becoming a turnover.
This feast-or-famine style resulted in some big numbers, including a 67% completion rate with seven touchdowns and 261.2 yards per game over the final five weeks. But it also resulted in mind-numbing turnovers — eight interceptions during that timeframe.
While Mullens had AC/DC’s “Shoot to Thrill” blasting in his head at all times, Minnesota’s defense began to implode. Zac Taylor’s game plan in an overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals that attacked Brian Flores’ defense underneath had something to do with it. Still, Mullens’ interceptions put opponents in strikingly short fields.
With several players banged up, Jordan Love and Jared Goff had a field day against Minnesota. Love threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns in a Week 17 win in Minneapolis. Goff tallied 577 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in two meetings with the Vikings over the final three games.
The defense had devolved from a unit that held its opponents to 20 points or fewer six times over an eight-game stretch before Mullins took over. It allowed at least 27 points in each of its final four games last season.
Of course, that team also had its flaws. Aaron Jones has been an upgrade to this year’s running game, and the Vikings are getting competent quarterback play, whereas a torn Achilles sidelined Kirk Cousins a year ago.
While Darnold put up big numbers over the first five games, his decision-making made the Vikings truly dominant. In his first four games, Darnold had a 3.8% turnover-worthy play rate. Minnesota’s defense benefitted, holding opponents to 17 or fewer points in three games.
Since Week 5, Darnold’s turnover-worthy play rate has jumped to 4.5%, which still ranks 10th among qualifying quarterbacks in that stretch.
That hasn’t been a big problem, as the defense has allowed 17 or fewer points in three of those games. Outside of a 10-day stretch against the Lions and Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota’s defense looks championship-caliber. It ranks third in points allowed, first in takeaways, and in the top 10 in net passing yards and rushing yards per attempt.
In another sense, the Vikings haven’t needed Darnold to be a hero on offense. They’ve racked up 400 yards of total offense in each of the past two games. On Sunday, the Vikings held the ball for over 40 minutes, allowing its defense to rest up and shut down a Jaguars offense Mac Jones led.
If it weren’t for Darnold’s three interceptions, the Vikings could have won that game handily, just like how the win over the Indianapolis Colts would have been more decisive without a pair of interceptions.
It’s a hard-wiring process that has become the norm with O’Connell as head coach. When Cousins got too conservative, O’Connell reminded him to be more aggressive. When Darnold spent most of his career being hero ball, O’Connell reminded him that he didn’t need to do everything.
The Vikings don’t need their quarterback to be Batman. They can get by with Darnold playing the role of Alfred. If Darnold makes solid decisions and keeps the ball moving, the weapons around him and Minnesota’s defense can flourish.
If he falls into the Mullens trap, his defense will be burdened, and the Vikings will wonder what could have been for the second straight season.
